Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs. Miami Expert Pick and Prediction – December 28, 2023

PINSTRIPE BOWL: RUTGERS VS. MIAMI EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 28, 2023 — Here’s all the motivation Rutgers needs for this game: 0-11. That’s the Scarlet Knights’ all-time record against the Hurricanes, all of which came with the two programs in the Big East. This was an annual conference game for much of the 1990s, when Miami was a national power and Rutgers was a national punchline.

As such, the Scarlet Knights have never even come close to beating Miami. The closest game between the teams has been 14 points in 1993. In the three years before Greg Schiano’s first tour of duty in New Brunswick, the Hurricanes were competing for national glory, and the results from 1999-2001 reflected it: Miami 180, Rutgers 6.

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But then the Hurricanes left for the ACC and gradually fell off a cliff. Meanwhile, Rutgers evolved into something not horrible under Schiano. The Scarlet Knights have rarely been good, but they’ve at least been competitive. And they’re now at the point where they reasonably believe they can beat a team like Miami.

And the Hurricanes might be ripe for that, given how they finished the season. Miami was a mess in ACC play, going just 3-5 and winning two of those games in overtime. The only game they won in regulation came against a weak Boston College squad. Otherwise, they lost five of seven and only covered twice because they were getting points against both Florida State and Clemson.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday, December 28th at 2:15 p.m. EST

Where: Yankee Stadium, New York

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: 78% on Rutgers

Public Money: 83% on Rutgers

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of December 26th, 2023.

Rutgers vs. Miami In-Season Trends

There is one big thing to like about Miami here: the Hurricanes tend to play their best football when people are down on them. Miami was an underdog to four Power 5 opponents in 2023, and the Hurricanes covered in three of them, beating Clemson and Texas A&M outright.

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And there’s a big thing to dislike about Rutgers here: the way the Scarlet Knights finished the season. Rutgers didn’t exactly cover itself in glory in the Big Ten, losing its final four games and going 2-6 in the league. Losing to Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State are all understandable, but the Scarlet Knights went 0-1-2 ATS in those games.

They also got blanked by Iowa and couldn’t stay within two touchdowns of Maryland. Rutgers hasn’t covered since Oct. 21, when it spanked Indiana by 17 while giving six.

Weather

As long as the field stays covered in the morning, the weather shouldn’t be an issue. There will be some early rain, but the temperature will hit 65 degrees once the game gets going.

The Difference-Makers

Strength on strength matches up here, as Rutgers running back Kyle Monangai led the Big Ten with 1,099 rushing yards. He’ll face the best run defense in the ACC in Miami, and he’ll have to be at his best in order to make anything happen. Cashing in has been a real problem for the Rutgers offense; Monangai only managed seven touchdowns on the season despite his yardage.

Miami’s normally been a pass-happy offense because of Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George, but they won’t have Tyler Van Dyke to throw to them in this game. Jacurri Brown gets the start, but he hasn’t thrown a pass all season. How he handles the Rutgers defense will go a long way toward deciding how effective the Miami attack is.

The Pick

Greg Schiano hasn’t quite earned the nickname Mr. December, but he’s probably pretty close. The Scarlet Knights’ coach is 5-2 in bowl games, and one of those gets a pass because he accepted a bowl bid at the last minute in 2021 where he knew Rutgers was overmatched but wanted the practice time.

This time, Rutgers is not overmatched. I don’t love the Scarlet Knights given how they finished, but they have plenty of motivation and Miami doesn’t. It’s hard to see the Hurricanes getting up for a game in the Yankees’ park on a chilly afternoon in New York. With Van Dyke gone and the game meaning more to Rutgers, I’m riding with the defense.