Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks Expert Pick – March 17, 2024

PHOENIX SUNS VS. MILWAUKEE BUCKS EXPERT PICK – MARCH 17, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from today’s slate features the Phoenix Suns (38-28 SU, 26-39-2 ATS) taking on the Milwaukee Bucks (43-24 SU, 29-38 ATS).

In a battle between a pair of teams coming off wins in their last outings, here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, March 17, 2024

Time: 1:00 PM ET

Where: Fiserv Forum

Location: Milwaukee, WI

TV: ABC

Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Suns Conclude Their Four-Game Road Trip With A 3-1 Record?

 Phoenix Suns Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 116.8 PPG – 12^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.7 points per 100 possessions – 11^TH
• Scoring Defense: 114.2 PPG – 16^TH                    
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.1 points per 100 possessions – 13^TH

The Suns have the sixth-best record in the Western Conference but have just a half-game lead over the seventh-place Sacramento Kings. Phoenix has posted six wins in its last six contests, including a 107-86 win over the Charlotte Hornets on Friday night.

Devin Booker led the way with 21 points, 11 assists, and six rebounds.

Grayson Allen added 17 points and three assists, while Kevin Durant contributed 13 points, eight boards, and five dimes.

Although Booker and Durant shot a combined 13-for-33 from the field and 2-for-14 from beyond the arc, the Suns emerged victorious thanks to a balanced attack in which six players scored in double figures.

“That’s the name of the game for us,” Durant said, via ESPN. “There are going to be nights where everybody has to contribute scoring the ball and tonight was one of those nights.”

The Suns excelled from a defensive standpoint as well, holding the Hornets to 37.2 percent from the floor and 16.2 percent from 3-point range. This marked the first time they held an opponent to under 100 points since early January. They will need a similar effort against a Bucks team that can put up big numbers on any given night.

The Bucks Look To Post Consecutive Wins For The First Time In Two Weeks

 Milwaukee Bucks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 120.4 PPG – 4^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 120.4 points per 100 possessions – 5^TH          
• Scoring Defense: 117.1PPG – 20^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.9 points per 100 possessions – 17^TH

The Bucks currently occupy the No. 2 spot in the Eastern Conference, but the third-place Cleveland Cavaliers are just one game behind them in the standings. In their last 10 outings, the Bucks have produced seven wins, including a 114-105 victory against the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday night.

Giannis Antetokounmpo was his usual self, as he paced the team’s offense with 32 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists. He accomplished this while attempting just 12 shots.

Brook Lopez finished with a stat line of 19 points, seven rebounds, and five assists. Damian Lillard added 17 points and nine assists.

After trailing by eight points at the break, the Bucks turned it up a notch at the defensive end of the floor. They outscored Philadelphia 61-44 in the second half, including a 34-22 advantage in the final frame.

“With our size, to me, if we’re going to get into that mud wrestling or a track meet, I want the mud,” Rivers said after the game. “It kind of fits what we should be.”

The Bucks’ second-half defensive effort that held off the Sixers is not the only positive news. It is being reported that Khris Middleton – who has missed the last 16 games – will return to the lineup against the Suns. Milwaukee went 10-6 during his absence but his return is a huge positive for this ball club with the postseason looming.

Now that we have set the table for this pivotal matchup, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Bucks opened as a 3.5-point favorite (per OddShark.com). But according to DraftKings, the line has dipped to two points for the home team. Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last five contests.
• Phoenix is 2-6-1 ATS in their last eight matchups against Milwaukee.
• In their last nine March games, the Suns are just 2-7 against the spread.
• The Bucks are an impressive 8-3 ATS in their last 11 outings.
• Milwaukee is 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests against Pacific Division opponents.
• In their last nine Sunday games, the Bucks are 3-6 against the spread.

I like the Bucks here for a couple of reasons. First, the Bucks have covered the spread at a 72.7 percent clip over their last 11 contests. Second, the Suns are 6-12 against the spread as underdogs and they are 5-7 against the spread as road underdogs.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks (-2)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 231.5 points. At the time of this writing, the line has dipped to 229.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER 11 times in the Suns’ last 13 games.
• In Phoenix’s last 16 contests against Central Division teams, the “UNDER” total cashed in 11 times.
• The UNDER total prevailed nine times in the Bucks’ last 11 contests.
• The total has gone UNDER 10 times in Milwaukee’s last 14 matchups against Western Conference teams.

Given the above trends, combined with the fact that these two teams have failed to exceed the points total for this matchup in their last three head-to-head contests, I am leaning toward the “under” here.

Prediction: UNDER 229.5 points

Player Prop Bet

The key player to watch in this matchup is Kevin Durant. He currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 24.5 points and +100 odds of finishing with less than 24.5 points.

Let’s see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• In 28 career games against the Bucks, he is averaging 26 points per game.
• On the season, KD is averaging 28.1 points per outing across 60 appearances.
• In 30 home contests, he is averaging 27.2 PPG.
• Durant has played against Eastern Conference teams 24 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 28.8 points per outing.
• In eight matchups against Central Division opponents, Durant is averaging 32.4 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Durant has averaged 28.1 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Based on the above trends, going with the “over” for Durant is the better option.

Prediction: Kevin Durant OVER 24.5 points