Phoenix Suns vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Expert Pick – March 11, 2024

PHOENIX SUNS VS. CLEVELAND CAVALIERS EXPERT PICK – MARCH 10, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Phoenix Suns (37-27 SU, 25-37-2 ATS) taking on the Cleveland Cavaliers (41-23 SU, 31-31-2 ATS).

In a battle of two squads coming off losses in their last outings, here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Monday, March 11, 2024

Time: 7:30 PM ET

Where: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse

Location: Cleveland, Ohio

TV: BSOH and AZ Family

Phoenix Suns vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Phoenix Suns vs. Cleveland Cavaliers — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Suns Bounce Back From Double-Digit Loss To The Celtics?

 Phoenix Suns Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 117.0 PPG – 12^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.8 points per 100 possessions – 12^TH
• Scoring Defense: 114.3 PPG – 16^TH                  
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.0 points per 100 possessions – 13^TH

The Suns currently hold down the No. 6 spot out west. However, they have just a half-game lead over the Sacramento Kings in the standings.

The Suns have been up and down as of late, going 5-5 over their last 10 outings. Their recent two-game winning streak was snapped with a 117-107 loss to the Boston Celtics on Saturday night.

In that contest, Kevin Durant paced the Suns’ offense with a team-high 45 points to go along with 10 rebounds and six assists. He shot 18-for-26 from the floor and 4-for-7 from beyond the arc.

Bradley Beal added 25 points, four assists, and three steals. Jusuf Nurkic contributed 11 points, 11 rebounds, and four assists.

Although they trailed by 12 points at the break, the Suns trimmed the deficit to three points (77-74) late in the third quarter. However, Boston responded with an 11-4 run to take an 87-78 lead into the final frame, en route to a double-digit victory.

“I thought we battled, I’m proud of how hard we fought,” Suns coach Frank Vogel said, via ESPN. ”I didn’t like how many loose balls we weren’t getting at the beginning of the game — got to have more urgency against a team with the best record in the NBA. But I thought we caught ourselves and played a spirited game throughout the rest of it.”

This contest against the Cavaliers is the Suns’ first stop of a four-game road trip. Devin Booker has been out of the lineup for the past four games due to an ankle injury. The team hopes to get him back soon as it prepares for a playoff push down the stretch.

Can The Short-Handed Cavaliers Eclipse The Suns?

Cleveland Cavaliers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 113.8 PPG – 18^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 115.7 points per 100 possessions – 16^TH        
• Scoring Defense: 109.5 PPG – 4^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.4 points per 100 possessions – 3^RD

Meanwhile, like the Suns, the Cavaliers have gone 5-5 across their last 10 decisions as well. They have the third-best record in the Eastern Conference and trail the second-place Milwaukee Bucks by a half-game.

As is the case with Phoenix, Cleveland comes into this matchup on the heels of a loss. They were defeated by the Brooklyn Nets 120-101 on Sunday. In that contest, four starters scored in double figures.

Georges Niang scored a team-high 20 points on 8-for-12 shooting from the floor. He also accumulated three rebounds and two assists.

Jarrett Allen finished with 15 points, nine rebounds, and three assists. Darius Garland added 14 points and five assists.

The short-handed Cavaliers trailed by just a point at the break (53-52). But Brooklyn broke the game open in the third quarter, outscoring the home team by a 44-29 margin. This outburst effectively put the game out of reach.

“Our guys competed and I’m proud of them, but at some point in time, you just run out of gas,” Cavaliers coach J.B. Bickerstaff said after the game. “The third quarter kind of broke our back.”

Cleveland came into the game against Brooklyn with the third-best scoring defense in the league, giving up 109.4 points per contest. The 120-point effort by the Nets was the most points the Cavaliers had allowed in regulation since mid-February. Not only that, but Brooklyn shot 53.2 percent from the field and  51.4 percent from 3-point  range.

With several players out of the lineup – Donovan Mitchell (knee), Evan Mobley (ankle), and Max Strus (knee), the Cavaliers look to get back on track against a Suns team trying to regain its footing.

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Cavaliers opened as a consensus 1.5-point favorite. That line has moved in the other direction as they are now a 6.5-point underdog (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Phoenix Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last six contests.
• In its last five March games, Phoenix is 1-4 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Cleveland Cavaliers are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 outings.
• Cleveland is 4-1 ATS the last five times the team has played on Monday.
• In their last five Monday games at home, the Cavaliers are 4-1 against the spread.

Although the Suns are just 6-14-1 against the spread when they are favored by 5.5 points or more, going with the road team to cover against a short-handed opponent is the right play here.

Prediction: Phoenix Suns (-6)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 224.5 points. At the time of this writing, the line has dipped to 220.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER in each of the Suns’ last 10 outings.
• The UNDER total is 5-1 in Phoenix’s last six road contests.
• In the Suns’ last 13 road matchups against the Cavaliers, the UNDER total cashed in 10 times.
• The UNDER total has hit four times in the Cavaliers’ last six games.

Prediction: UNDER 220.5 points

Player Prop Bet

The key player to watch in this matchup is Kevin Durant. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 25.5 points and -125 odds of finishing with less than 25.5 points.

Here’s a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• In 29 career games against the Cavaliers, he is averaging 26.7 points per contest.
• On the season, Durant is averaging 27.1 points per game across 57 outings.
• In 26 road contests, he is averaging 28.3 points per contest.
• Durant has played against Eastern Conference teams 21 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 29.5 points per outing.
• In seven matchups against Central Division opponents, Durant is averaging 31.7 points per game.
• Kevin Durant has played on Monday night four times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 27.3 points per outing.
• Over his last 10 outings, Durant has averaged 28.7 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Prediction: Kevin Durant OVER 25.5 points