Phoenix Suns vs. Boston Celtics Expert Pick – March 14, 2024

PHOENIX SUNS VS. BOSTON CELTICS EXPERT PICK – MARCH 14, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Phoenix Suns (38-27 SU, 25-38-2 ATS) taking on the Boston Celtics (51-14 SU, 33-29-3 ATS).

In a battle between two teams that are squaring off against each other for the second time in less than a week, here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Thursday, March 14, 2024

Time: 7:30 PM ET

Where: TD Garden

Location: Boston, MA

TV: TNT

Phoenix Suns vs. Boston Celtics Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Phoenix Suns vs. Boston Celtics – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Suns Avenge Earlier Loss To The Celtics With Devin Booker Back In The Lineup?

 Phoenix Suns Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 117.0 PPG – 11^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.8 points per 100 possessions – 9^TH
• Scoring Defense: 114.3 PPG – 16^TH                    
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.0 points per 100 possessions – 13^TH

The Phoenix Suns are tied with the Sacramento Kings for the sixth-best record in the Western Conference and they have split their last 10 contests. Following a 117-107 loss to the Celtics on Saturday, the Suns bounced back with a 117-111 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday night.

Kevin Durant scored a game-high 37 points on 14-for-26 shooting from the field and 5-for-10 from beyond the arc. He also collected a team-high eight rebounds and handed out six assists.

After missing four games with an ankle injury, Devin Booker added 27 points, seven assists, and six rebounds in his return. Bradley Beal contributed 24 points, five rebounds, and four assists.

Despite the absence of Donovan Mitchell, the Cavaliers led 63-44 midway through the second quarter. But thanks to thanks to a remarkable 43-15 run, the Suns eventually turned that double-digit deficit into a six-point victory.

Given that the Suns are 32-19 with Booker in the lineup, his return could not come at a better time as the Suns begin a four-game road trip, which will include stops in Boston and Milwaukee.

Can The Celtics Continue To Dominate On Their Home Court?

 Boston Celtics Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 120.8 PPG – 2^ND
• Offensive Efficiency: 122.7 points per 100 possessions – 1^ST         
• Scoring Defense: 109.6 PPG – 5^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.3 points per 100 possessions – 2^ND

The Boston Celtics are head and shoulders above the rest of the league. In addition to posting eight wins across their last 10 decisions, Boston comes into this matchup on a three-game winning streak. This includes a 123-107 victory over the Utah Jazz on Tuesday night.

In that contest, Jayson Tatum led all scorers with 38 points to go along with six boards, and two assists.

Derrick White scored 28 points and knocked down seven of his 11 attempts from long range.  Jrue Holiday also chipped in with 16 points and eight rebounds.

The Jazz trailed by double-digits for most of the first half but managed to trim the deficit to three points in the third quarter. But as they have done several times this season, the Celtics responded to the tune of a 20-0 run that gave them a comfortable 113-91 lead with 6:28 left in the final frame.

Boston is a league-best 29-3 at TD Garden and they will look to sustain their recent success with another win over a Suns team they defeated less than a week ago.

Now that we have set the table for this Western Conference showdown, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Celtics opened as a 6.5-point favorite (per OddShark.com). But according to DraftKings, the line has dipped to five points for the home team. Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Suns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
• Phoenix is an impressive 11-5 ATS in its last 16 matchups against Boston.
• The Suns are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road contests against the Celtics.
• In its last six games against Atlantic Division opponents, Phoenix is 1-5 against the spread.
• The Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 outings.
• In its seven games against Western Conference teams, Boston is 6-1 against the spread.

Given the above trends, you can make a case for either team covering the spread. The one stat that tips this prediction in the Celtics’ favor is they are 32-9-2 against the spread in games where they have been favored by five points or more. With that in mind, I am going with the home team to cover.

Prediction: Boston Celtics (-5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 230.5 points. At the time of this writing, the line has dipped to 225.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER 10 times in the Suns’ 11 games.
• The UNDER total is 4-1 in Phoenix’s last five road games.
• In the Suns’ last nine March games, the UNDER total cashed in eight times.
• The UNDER total has prevailed five times in the Celtics’ last six contests.
• In Boston’s last seven matchups against Phoenix, the UNDER total is 6-1.
• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Celtics’ last five games against Pacific Division teams.

Prediction: UNDER 225.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Fresh off his 37-point effort against the Cavaliers, the key player to watch in this matchup is Kevin Durant. He currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 26.5 points and -105 odds of finishing with less than 26.5 points.

Let’s look at the tale of the tape to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• In 23 career games against the Celtics, he is averaging 27.1 points per game.
• On the season, Durant is averaging 28.5 points per outing across 58 appearances.
• In 30 home contests, he is averaging 29.0 PPG.
• Durant has played against Eastern Conference teams 22 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 29.9 points per outing.
• In seven matchups against Atlantic Division opponents, Durant is averaging 32.9 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Durant has averaged 29.9 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup six times during that stretch.

Based on the above trends, I expect Durant to exceed the points threshold in this matchup.

Prediction: Kevin Durant OVER 26.5 points