Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Expert Pick – June 24, 2023

PHOENIX MERCURY VS. SEATTLE STORM EXPERT PICK – JUNE 24, 2023 – Greetings and salutations basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. We have two games on tap for Saturday. One of those matchups features a pair of teams that are not faring too well thus far: he Phoenix Mercury (2-9) will take on the Seattle Storm (3-9). 

Both squads bring multi-game losing streaks into this contest. Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why. 

Click here to read more basketball coverage.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Saturday, June 24, 2023 at 9:00 PM ET

Where: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA

TV: Twitter, FOX13+, Prime Video and AZFamily

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 24, 2023

Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm – Season Trends

When you have a matchup featuring the worst two teams in the WNBA with a combined record of 5-18, it is a foregone conclusion that there are shortcomings to speak of. 

Both Phoenix and Seattle Are Struggling at Both Ends of the Floor

The Mercury are ranked ninth in scoring (77.5 PPG) and eighth in efficiency (98.9 points per 100 possessions). As bad as this team is from an offensive standpoint, the story gets worse at the other end of the court. Phoenix is ranked last in scoring defense (87.6 PPG) and defensive rating. 

Phoenix has dropped each of their last four contests. Not only that but the average margin of those four defeats is 17.8 points per contest. In their most recent against the Las Vegas Aces, they were defeated by a 20-point margin (99-79). 

To be objective, some of the team’s struggles can be attributed to its top two scorers nursing injuries over the past three games – Brittney Griner (20.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks) and Diana Taurasi (15.3 points, 3.5 rebounds and 6.0 assists per outing). Both stars’ status for Saturday’s game is probable. If they can suit up, this will certainly improve Phoenix’s chances of getting a much-needed win. 

Meanwhile, Seattle has the third-lowest scoring offense (76.4 PPG) and is ranked last in offensive efficiency. Additionally, this team is ranked ninth in scoring defense (84.8 PPG) and it has the third-worst defensive rating in the association (105.7 points per 100 possessions). 

The Storm have dropped three of their previous four contests, including an 80-68 setback against the Indiana Fever on Thursday night – a game in which they produced just 24 points in the second half, including nine in the final frame. 

And just like Phoenix, this Seattle needs a win asap as well. 

Here are my betting trends for this matchup.

The Picks

The Spread

The Seattle Storm are a 2.5-point favorite in this matchup. And while they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games they have played on one day of rest, here are some trends that suggest why picking Seattle to cover is a solid choice.

• Seattle holds a 4-1-1 record ATS in its last six games against Western Conference opponents. And the team has won four of its last five against the spread when facing a team with a losing record. Phoenix is 2-9 on the season. 
• The Storm are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games following an SU loss, and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. 
• Lastly, the Storm are 4-1 ATS in the last five instances they were coming off an ATS loss. And they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. 

Prediction: Seattle Storm (-2.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this contest is 158.5 points. Here is a look at why going with the UNDER is the best bet. 

• The UNDER total has hit four times in Phoenix’s last five games against opponents with a losing record. Seattle is 3-9. 
• The UNDER holds a 7-2 mark in the Mercury’s last nine games that were played on a Saturday. 
• In Phoenix’s last five games, the UNDER has prevailed in three of those contests. 
• On the side of the narrative, the UNDER is 4-1 in Seattle’s last five games following a loss, and the UNDER has the same 4-1 mark the last five times Seattle played on one day of rest. 
• The UNDER is 6-2 for the Storm in their last six games. 
• An even more noteworthy stat is the UNDER total has prevailed 16 times in Seattle’s last 21 games against teams with a losing record. 

Prediction: UNDER 158.5 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch from this contest is Seattle Storm guard Jewell Loyd. She currently has -115 odds of scoring both over and under 25.5 points. 

With Breanna Stewart’s departure to the New York Liberty, Loyd has become Seattle’s top-scoring option. In her ninth year in the league – all with Seattle – Loyd is averaging a career-best 25.5 points per contest. Furthermore, she has scored over 30 points in two of her last three outings. 

Given those trends, look for Loyd to have another solid outing in a matchup of teams that do not excel at the defensive end of the court. 

Prediction: Jewell Loyd OVER 25.5 points