PHOENIX MERCURY VS. NEW YORK LIBERTY EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — August 26, 2024

PHOENIX MERCURY VS. NEW YORK LIBERTY EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — August 26, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from today’s slate features the Phoenix Mercury (15-14 SU, 17-12 ATS) hosting the New York Liberty (25-5 SU, 15-15 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Monday, August 26, 2024 @ 10:00 PM ET

Where: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

TV: NBA TV, Mercury Live, AZFamily, FOX5 New York, and Liberty Live

Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty – In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

The Mercury return to the Footprint Center for a five-game homestand following a split in a two-game set against the Atlanta Dream. In the team’s 82-80 over Atlanta on Friday night, Brittney Griner led the charge with 22 points, six rebounds, and six assists. Diana Taurasi added 18 points and five boards, while Kahleah Copper finished with 16 points and five rebounds.

Alongside this game against New York, the Mercury’s next two games include matchups against the Minnesota Lynx and the Las Vegas Aces before facing the Dream again on Sep.  3.

On the other hand, following an 83-78 setback against the Indiana Fever on July 6, the Liberty reeled off eight straight wins, including four consecutive wins following the month-long Olympic break. That streak ended, however, with a 72-64 loss to the Connecticut Sun on Saturday.

Although four players scored in double figures — headlined by Brenna Stewart’s 15-point, 15-rebound effort — the Liberty shot 36.9 percent from the field overall and connected on just seven of their 32 attempts from 3-point range (21.9 percent). During its dominant eight-game winning streak, New York posted five double-digit victories.

After a dismal showing against Connecticut, the Liberty will seek to avoid losing consecutive games for the second time this season.

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

The Mercury opened as a 4.5-point underdog. However,  that line has recently moved to 5.5 points (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Mercury are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 outings following a straight-up win.
• In its 22 games played on one day of rest, Phoenix is 6-16 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Liberty are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.
• New York is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games and 4-1 ATS in its last five matchups against Western Conference opponents.

Prediction: New York Liberty (-5.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 162 points, but the line has moved to 164 points (via OddsShark.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Mercury’s last five Monday night games.
• The UNDER total is 3-1-1 in Phoenix’s last five outings against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The total has gone UNDER in each of the Liberty’s last four contests.
• The UNDER total is 5-1 in New York’s last six games following a straight-up win.

Prediction: UNDER 164 points

Player Prop Bet

Following her 22-6-6 effort against Atlanta, Brittney Griner is the key player to watch for the home team. She currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 18.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 18.5 points (via Bet365).

Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the season, Griner has been putting up 18.3 points per game.
• In the previous matchup against New York this season, Griner finished with 19 points and four rebounds on 8-of-13 shooting from the field.
• Griner has played against Eastern Conference teams 11 times this season, averaging 17.6 points per outing in those contests.
• In nine home games, the Phoenix Mercury center averages 20.8 points per game.
• Over her last five outings, Griner has averaged 17.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup twice during that stretch.

Prediction: Brittney Griner OVER 18.5 points