PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — January 26, 2025

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — January 26, 2025 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from the weekend slate features the Philadelphia Eagles (16-3 SU, 12-7 ATS) hosting the Washington Commanders (14-5 SU, 12-6-1 ATS) in the conference championship game.

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, January 26, 2025 @ 3:00 PM ET

Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

TV: FOX

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders — How We Got Here & Betting Trends

Can The Eagles Remain Hot Against Upset-Minded Commanders?

It’s no secret the Eagles had a disappointing end to their 2023 season. They dropped five of their final six regular-season contests and were bounced into the wild-card round of the playoffs. This year has been an entirely different story. They went on a 10-game winning streak late in the season and have won 16 times for the second time in three seasons. They finished with the league’s best defense and have won 14 of their last 15 games dating back to October. This includes a pair of postseason victories against the Green Bay Packers (22-10) and the Los Angeles Rams (28-22).

In the six-point win over Los Angeles, Saquon Barkley ran roughshod over the Rams’ defense to the tune of 205 yards, along with two touchdowns. On the flip side, Philadelphia surrendered 402 yards, allowed seven sacks, and Jalen Hurts is nursing a knee injury coming into this contest.

Will The Commanders Continue Their Improbable Postseason Run?

Last season, Washington finished with a 4-13 record. But thanks in part to rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, this team has done a complete 180 in 2024. The Commanders finished the regular season with five straight wins en route to winning 12 games. And if you thought their regular performance was a fluke, you’d be mistaken. They outlasted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20 in the opening round of the playoffs, setting up a showdown against the top-seeded Detroit Lions in the divisional round.

Facing a formidable offense both through the air and on the ground, Washington didn’t flinch. Daniels completed 22 of 31 passes for 299 yards and two scores, and the offense did not commit a single turnover. Defensively, though, there are few things to unpack. On one hand, the Commanders’ defense limited Detroit to 3-for-9 on third down. They forced five turnovers (including four interceptions) and recorded two sacks. That’s the good news.

On the flip side of the coin, the Lions put up 521 yards, including 201 yards on the ground. Additionally, Washington has the second-worst run defense of all the playoff teams, giving up 151 yards per outing. Given that Barkley has had success in the two regular-season matchups between these teams (296 yards and four touchdowns), it will be interesting to see if Washington’s defense can rise to the occasion.

Now that we have set the stage for the NFC Championship showdown, here is a look at the betting trends for both teams.

Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.

Eagles vs. Commanders Spread Analysis

The Eagles opened as a 5.5-point favorite. However, the line has recently moved to six points (per OddsShark.com). Here’s a look at how the teams have performed against the spread.

• The Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.
• Philly is 7-3 ATS in its previous 10 matchups against NFC opponents.
• The Eagles have covered the spread five times in their last six outings against NFC East teams.
• Meanwhile, the Commanders are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games.
• Washington is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 contests against divisional foes.
• In their previous six road matchups against Philadelphia, the Commanders are 3-2-1 against the spread.

Last week, I predicted the Commanders would cover the 9.5-point spread against the top-seeded Lions. With that in mind, I’m rolling with the road team this week to cover again in what will be a closer game than the given spread.

Prediction: Washington Commanders (+6)

Eagles vs. Commanders Over/Under Prediction

The projected over/under total for this matchup is 47.5 points (via OddsShark.com). Let’s see how these teams have performed against this metric.

• The total has gone UNDER nine times in their last 10 January outings.
• The UNDER total has hit four times in Philadelphia’s previous six Sunday home games.
• Conversely, the total has gone OVER 13 times in the Commanders’ last 20 contests.
• The OVER total has prevailed seven times in Washington’s previous 10 matchups against NFC East opponents.

Prediction: OVER 47.5 points

Eagles vs. Commanders Player Prop Bet

Coming off a regular season in which he led the league in rushing and accumulated 205 rushing yards against Los Angeles in the divisional round, Saquon Barkley is the key player to watch for the home team in this matchup. He currently has -111 odds of exceeding 128.5 rushing yards and -110 odds of finishing with less than 128.5 yards (via DraftKings). Let’s see how his numbers stack up against the projected yards total.

• During the postseason, Barkley is averaging 162.0 yards per game.
• Barkley has suited up in 10 home games this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he averages 123.6 yards per outing.
• In 13 matchups against NFC teams, Barkley is averaging 141.8 yards per game.
• Barkley has averaged 141.2 yards per outing across his last five starts, exceeding the projected yards total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Saquon Barkley OVER 128.5 rushing yards