Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks Expert Pick – March 12, 2024

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS VS.  NEW YORK KNICKS EXPERT PICK – MARCH 12, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Philadelphia 76ers (36-28 SU, 34-29-1 ATS) taking on the New York Knicks (37-27 SU, 33-30-1 ATS) for the second time in as many nights.

Here’s a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

When: Tuesday, March 12, 2024

Time: 7:30 PM ET

Where: Madison Square Garden

Location: New York City, NY

TV: TNT

Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Sixers Earn A Season Split Against Their Division Rivals?

 Philadelphia 76ers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 115.9 PPG – 14^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.7 points per 100 possessions – 10^TH
• Scoring Defense: 113.0 PPG – 13^TH                  
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.7 points per 100 possessions – 18^TH

The Philadelphia 76ers have dropped to the No. 6 spot without their MVP center – Joel Embiid – patrolling the paint at both ends of the floor. Additionally, the team has won only four times in its last 10 outings.

On the positive side of things, Philly did recently snap a three-game slide with a 79-73 win against the New York Knicks on Sunday night. Kelly Oubre Jr. led the team with 18 points on 6-for-19 shooting from the floor.

Buddy Hield added 16 points, seven rebounds, and three assists off the bench, while fellow reserve, Paul Reed, contributed 13 points and seven rebounds. Unfortunately for both teams — as well as the fans in the stands — points came at a premium in that contest, as the two ball clubs played to a 15-15 stalemate in the first 12 minutes of action.

“Any defensive coach would take that quarter,” Buddy Hield said, via ESPN. “Offensively, no, but we got great possessions, and we figured out a way to weather the storm and we made plays when we needed to make plays.”

Things did not get much better after the opening stanza, with the road team leading by a 37-31 margin at the intermission. This was the lowest-scoring half by two teams since the Portland Trail Blazers led the Detroit Pistons 34-31 at the break back in March 2019.

The Sixers scored more than 20 points just twice – in the second and third quarters. They shot 38.8 percent from the field (31-for-80) and converted just nine of their 30 attempts from beyond the arc.

As bad as those numbers sound, it was even worse for the home team. First, Philadelphia held New York to below 20 points in three of the four quarters. Second, the Sixers’ defense limited the Knicks to just 32.5 percent from the field and 22.5 percent from 3-point range. Lastly, the 73-point output was the lowest total for an NBA team this season.

If you are a Sixers fan, it does not get much better than this kind of effort from a defensive standpoint.

Can The Knicks Bounce Back From Their Abysmal Performance On Sunday?

New York Knicks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 112.4 PPG – 22^ND
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.4 points per 100 possessions – 13^TH        
• Scoring Defense: 108.8 PPG – 2^ND
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.7 points per 100 possessions – 9^TH

On the other side of this matchup, we have a Knicks squad that has produced four wins across its last 10 decisions. But despite their subpar play over that stretch, they do have the fourth-best record in the Eastern Conference, leading the fifth-place Orlando Magic by a slim half-game in the standings.

The leading scorer for the home team was Jalen Brunson. He scored 19 points and handed out eight assists. However, he shot 6-for-22 from the field and converted only one of his nine attempts from the 3-point line.

“We were sending a lot of people at him and he was having to work really hard to get into the paint, and we weren’t letting him get there that often,” 76ers coach Nick Nurse said after the game.

Donte DiVincenzo added 15 points, nine rebounds, and three assists. But he had a rough night shooting the ball as well. He finished 6-for-17 from the floor, including a 3-for-12 effort from long range.

With just one game separating these two teams in the standings, the Sixers can tie the season series at 2-2 with another win in Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night. Here’s to hoping that we see a much better performance from both teams on the heels of one the ugliest games that NBA fans have witnessed over the past several years.

Now that we have set the table for this Eastern Conference showdown, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Knicks opened as a 5.5-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to six points for the home team (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Sixers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 contests.
• Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games.
• In their last five matchups against Atlantic Division opponents, the Sixers are 1-4 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Knicks are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 outings.
• New York is a woeful 1-10 ATS in its 11 home games.
• In their last seven home games that were played in March, the Knicks are 5-2 against the spread.

As the above trends indicate, neither team has fared too well against the spread over the past few weeks, making this a difficult one to call. While I don’t expect New York to play as badly as they did two nights ago, this spread seems a bit high for my taste. With that being said, I am going with the Sixers to cover in this one.

Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers (+6)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 211.5 points. At the time of this writing, the line has dipped to 210.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER eight times in the Sixers’ last 11 games.
• The UNDER total is 8-1 in the Knicks’ last nine outings.
• In New York’s last five matchups against the Sixers, the UNDER total won four times.
• The UNDER total has prevailed six times in Philadelphia’s last seven games against Eastern Conference teams.
• In the Sixers’ last seven contests against New York, the UNDER total won all seven times.

Prediction: UNDER 210.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Following one of his worst shooting performances of the season, my key player to watch in this matchup is Jalen Brunson. He currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 27.5 points.

Let’s take a glance to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• In 15 career games against the Sixers, he is averaging 18.3 points per contest.
• This season, Brunson is averaging 27.1 points per game across 59 outings.
• In 30 home contests, he is averaging 27.7 PPG.
• Brunson has played against Eastern Conference teams 39 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 27.9 points per outing.
• In seven Tuesday night appearances this season, Brunson is averaging 21.9 PPG.
• In 12 matchups against Atlantic Division opponents, he is averaging 24.5 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Brunson has averaged 26.1 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Based on the above trends, going with the “under” for Brunson looks like a safe bet.

Prediction: Jalen Brunson UNDER 27.5 points