Peru vs. Canada Expert Pick and Prediction – June 25, 2024

PERU VS. CANADA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – June 25, 2024 — While Canadian hockey fans mourn over the Stanley Cup spending its 31st consecutive year south of the border, Canada’s soccer team attempts to bring some positive feelings back to the Great White North. Whether they can depends on whether they can cash in their chances. Les Rouges did create a few opportunities against Argentina, but they were clearly outclassed against the world champions.

Peru represents more reasonable opposition. The Incas qualified for the 2018 World Cup, but since then, they’ve gone the wrong way. Peru sits bottom of the table in South America’s World Cup qualifiers for 2026 (granted, qualifying in South America is a two-year, 18-match process, so the Incas still have time) and has not won a competitive match in over two years. In six competitive matches, Peru has failed to score five times and gone 0-4-2.

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Canada’s situation is different. Les Rouges qualify automatically for 2026, so coach Jesse Marsch has opted to put his team through a meat grinder. Since he took over, Canada has played the Netherlands, France and Argentina. The Reds have been outscored 6-0 in those matches, but they also didn’t expect to win any of them.

This time, the Canadians do expect a win. And if they don’t get it, their tournament’s coming to a quick end. Unlike the Euros, only two sides per group qualify to the knockout stages. Losing to Argentina wasn’t a surprise, but it does put the pressure on Canada. To progress, the Canadians need results against both Peru and Chile.

Kickoff

Teams: Peru vs. Canada

When: Tuesday, June 25 at 6 p.m. EST

Where: Children’s Mercy Park, Kansas City, Kan.

TV: FOX

Spread: Peru +0.5/Canada -0.5

Moneyline: Peru +265/Canada +120/Draw +215

Totals: Over 2.5 (+135)/Under 2.5 (-170)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 25th, 2024 

Scouting Peru

Things got even more difficult for Peru after the opening match with Chile. Captain Luis Advincula tumbled to the grass 35 minutes into the match and had to come off, with the Incas fearing an Achilles issue. Peru wasn’t pleased with the portable grass field used in Atlanta, which normally has a turf field. They’ll find natural grass in Kansas City, but that’s too late for Advincula, who’s almost certainly out for the tournament.

Without him, Peru’s options aren’t appealing. Joao Grimaldo has youth on his side, but hasn’t yet shown a scoring touch at this level. Paolo Guerrero has a history of goals, but he’s now 40 years old. The injury situation really sums up the Incas’ problems: Peru’s not a country that produces an abundance of soccer talent. The Peruvians are relying on a generation that peaked six years ago, and it’s not working any longer.

Scouting Canada

Having Alphonso Davies healthy makes a big difference for Canada. In the lead-up to 2022, the Canadians had to go without their best player, which did force the rest of the squad to adapt. The 23-year-old is now fully fit and has assumed the captain’s armband, and Canada’s a better side for it. The Canadians haven’t seen any rewards for their play yet, but that reflects the quality of their opposition. Per the FIFA world rankings, the weakest side Les Rouges have faced under Marsch (the Netherlands) ranks seventh overall.

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Canada has pushed the tempo pretty well and possesses solid attackers in Cyle Larin and Jonathan David. Against this side, the Reds will get opportunities. They should go into this match thinking three points.

Best Bets

Canada ML (+120): Canada has appeared the stronger of the two sides. The Canadians played Argentina even for a half and only broke down as experience and talent began to show. This matchup is far more reasonable, and Canada should show the lessons it has learned. You might even take Canada to win to nil (+200), given Peru’s scoring issues.

Both Teams to Score, No (-120): Peru’s attack appears really weak. The Peruvians don’t have their full team intact, and they’re missing one of their best creators. Canada will likely be able to keep the Incas from getting many looks.

Canada 1-0 (+500): Peru’s defense isn’t bad, as it’s held eight of its past 11 opponents to one goal or less. That list includes the likes of Brazil, so the Incas do know how to defend. Canada could get a second goal given its high-risk style, but the single goal seems more likely.