Penn State vs. West Virginia Expert Pick and Prediction – August 31, 2024

PENN STATE VS. WEST VIRGINIA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – August 31, 2024 — Nobody is happier about the end of divisions than Penn State. The Nittany Lions have found themselves stuck in third gear behind Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten East, and now they no longer have to worry about that in the Big Ten Plus Eight.

But if they’re going to make a run to both Indianapolis and the playoff, they’ve got to get through West Virginia first. Penn State won’t leave the Keystone State again until Oct. 12, as its next four games are all at home. The Nittany Lions also don’t lose to West Virginia very often, owning a 49-9-2 record against the Mountaineers.

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West Virginia won enough last year to get the wolves away from Neal Brown’s door. Brown was seen as a dead man walking after never having a better year than 6-4 in Morgantown, but he came up with a nine-win season last year to save his job.

But that said, it’s hard to say how good West Virginia really is. The Mountaineers won six games in the Big 12 in 2023, but they didn’t play most of the top teams. They didn’t face Texas, Iowa State or Kansas State, and they lost to both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Last season, there were six teams that finished with three wins or fewer in the Big 12, and West Virginia played all of them and beat five of them. With the other wins being Duquesne, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech and North Carolina, it’s fair to think West Virginia still has a long way to go before it can play with Penn State.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, August 31 at Noon EST

Where: Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, W. Va.

TV: Fox

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 30th, 2024.

Penn State vs. West Virginia In-Season Trends

Don’t fade Penn State when the Nittany Lions are giving points on the road. Just don’t do it. Over the past two seasons, Penn State has been favored seven times away from Happy Valley, and the Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in these situations. The only road games Penn State has lost in the past two years are against the two teams it can’t beat anywhere, Ohio State and Michigan.

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West Virginia has been on a stretch of playing its old rivals in the non-conference, as the Mountaineers played Virginia Tech at home in 2021 and Pittsburgh last year. West Virginia won both of those games, although two things were different about them compared to this assignment. First, neither the Hokies nor the Panthers were in the class of the Nittany Lions. Second, West Virginia was favored in both games.

Weather

The teams are probably playing in the best weather window of the day. The temperature will start in the low 80s, and storms aren’t supposed to arrive until the early afternoon.

The Difference-Makers

Drew Allar has to be more willing to take chances with the football. He almost never turns it over, as he threw for 25 scores against two interceptions last year. But he takes the safe throw a little too often, which leads to Penn State punting rather quickly against better opponents. Punting is of course better than an interception, but against the likes of Michigan and Ohio State, that’s left the Nittany Lions slowly bleeding out and eventually losing the game.

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Garrett Greene also tends to be careful with the football, tossing just four interceptions against 16 touchdowns last year. However, West Virginia didn’t have a lot of experience in the wide receiver department last season. The Mountaineers are stronger at that position this year, and Greene has to be more gutsy with the ball.

The Pick

The Mountaineers have talent, but they haven’t yet shown they can do much of anything against an opponent of this quality. West Virginia got gashed for 332 passing yards last season, as Allar did whatever he wanted. The Mountaineers’ defense still does not look capable of stopping the Penn State ground game, and the things West Virginia does well play to Penn State’s strengths.

The game might be closer than last year, but the result should be the same.