Penn State vs. Notre Dame Expert Pick and Prediction – January 9, 2025

PENN STATE VS. NOTRE DAME EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 9, 2025 — The bottom half of the bracket was always the place to be. While Texas had to slog past a tough Arizona State and Ohio State ultimately caught Oregon on the right day and boatraced the Ducks, Penn State and Notre Dame seemingly landed a glide path to the Orange Bowl.

Both were handed manageable first-round games against SMU and Indiana, and both eased into the second round. Both then got reasonable matchups in round 2, as Penn State faced Boise State and Notre Dame got a banged-up Georgia. It proved smooth sailing for both teams, and now one of them will play for the national championship.

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And based off last time out, it seems to be Penn State’s spot to lose.

The Fighting Irish have been at their best when they can run the ball and let Riley Leonard manage the game. But the Big Ten was where running offenses went to die this year, as Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana all put the clamps on the run. The Irish were able to run past the Hoosiers, but part of that was because Indiana just didn’t have the offense to match them.

Penn State does, and unlike the Hoosiers, the Nittany Lions aren’t likely to fall behind early. When Notre Dame can’t get an early lead and Leonard has to lead the Irish back, they’re far less effective. Just as the previous two games did, this matchup seems to be playing right into Penn State’s hands.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday, January 9 at 7:30 p.m.

Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Penn State vs. Notre Dame In-Season Trends

Even though Notre Dame money is usually a thing, it hasn’t been this year. The Fighting Irish have gone 12-2 ATS this season, and they’re 12-0 ATS against teams that are not part of the Mid-American Conference. Given that they haven’t faced one since Miami-Ohio, the Irish have covered 10 straight.

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Penn State has been rock-solid on the defensive side of the ball in the postseason. Other than Oregon — which is also the only team all year to break 20 on Ohio State — the Nittany Lions have held five of six opponents to 14 points or less.

Weather

Wind blowing north at 12 miles per hour might be an issue, but otherwise, it is smooth sailing with 60 degree temperatures.

The Difference-Makers

Jeremiyah Love has been feast or famine for the Irish in the postseason. Mostly, it’s been famine. He ripped off a big run for 98 yards and a score against Indiana, which put the Hoosiers in a deep hole. But otherwise, he has just 29 yards on 13 carries in the playoffs. If Penn State shuts him down, the Irish are in trouble.

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Kaytron Allen has been the top running back this year for the Nittany Lions, and he’s capable of both grinding things out or hitting the big play. Notre Dame can’t fall behind early.

The Pick

The Irish have had an easy time of things, but it’s hard to see why they’re favored in this game. Their play style plays into Penn State’s hands. They’ve faced one team with a backup quarterback (Georgia) and another whose quarterback had torn his ACL (Indiana).

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Penn State is healthy, and Drew Allar is far more capable than Gunnar Stockton or an injured Kurtis Rourke. Plus, the Nittany Lions have the powerful ground game that allows Allar to be effective. This line appears to be a mistake.