Penn State vs. Iowa Expert Pick and Prediction – January 24, 2025

PENN STATE VS. IOWA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 24, 2025 — Take everything you know about Iowa from football season, flip it on its head, and you essentially have Iowa basketball. While the Hawkeyes are a three-hour sleeping pill on Saturdays in September, they hit the gas in a big way on the hardcourt.

Iowa plays at breakneck speed, ranking 25th in the nation in tempo. The problem is that the Hawkeyes sometimes play too fast for their own good, which leads to mistakes and easy opposing baskets. If you can handle the basketball well, you pretty much have Iowa right where you want it.

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Penn State, however, is not the kind of team that handles the ball well. That was once the case when Micah Shrewsberry was running things in University Park, but Mike Rhoades came from Virginia Commonwealth and likes to push the tempo. And while that’s resulted in the Nittany Lions putting up far more points than they used to, it also means that Penn State is far more susceptible to losses caused by the defense.

The Nittany Lions finally stopped the bleeding by winning at home against Rutgers, but that ended a four-game losing streak against the likes of Indiana, Illinois, Oregon and Michigan State. Penn State has some nice wins on the year, such as Purdue, but the Nittany Lions haven’t done any of that work outside of the Keystone State. Their only road win is at Drexel, which won’t impress anyone when March comes around. This is must-win for both teams.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Friday, January 24 at 9 p.m.

Where: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, Iowa

TV: FS1

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Penn State vs. Iowa In-Season Trends

It’s always nice when a team matches its results to the spread, and that’s what Iowa has been doing as of late. The Hawkeyes have matched spread and game result in 10 straight contests, which means that fading them has been the play as of late. Iowa has dropped its past three games, including a home loss to Minnesota.

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Iowa tends to make teams adapt to its speedy pace, and Penn State has been happy to oblige as of late. The past four meetings have all soared past the total.

The Difference-Makers

Both teams are good shooters, and Ace Baldwin is coming off a 22-point showing against Rutgers. His importance to Penn State was underscored in the loss to Illinois, as he got shut out and the Nittany Lions lost by 39. In his past two games, he’s scored 42 points.

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Owen Freeman has been a solid scorer down low, but he doesn’t get the job done when he has to go to the charity stripe. Penn State doesn’t foul a lot, but it might make a exception here. Forcing Freeman to win the game from 15 feet instead of three might be a winner.

The Pick

Neither side is playing well, but Iowa really hasn’t seemed capable of getting the job done lately. Losing to UCLA and USC in Los Angeles is one thing, but the Hawks followed by getting beaten at home against a weak Minnesota squad. Other than one bad drilling against Illinois, Penn State mostly sticks around and makes life hard on opponents.

The total will be tough to reach, but both teams do love to run. I’ll take my free basket here.