Penn State vs. Boise State Expert Pick and Prediction – December 31, 2024

PENN STATE VS. BOISE STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 31, 2024 — Can Boise State continue its run of Fiesta Bowl magic? The Broncos view Arizona as their home away from home, having won three Fiesta Bowls in their history. That includes their memorable first trip, when they defeated Oklahoma on the Statue of Liberty play.

But their path this time is blocked by Penn State, which has its own sparkling history in the desert. The Nittany Lions won the 1987 national championship here, beating a heavily favored Miami team to become the consensus champions. Back then, Penn State was the upstart independent, long before it became a Big Ten power.

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Now the Nittany Lions are the established blue blood, and Boise State is looking to pull another surprise. The Broncos have ridden Ashton Jeanty all year long and haven’t yet run into a team that can stop him.

Penn State, however, might be that team. The Nittany Lions run it as well as anyone and have the run defense to match. If Boise can’t get Jeanty going, it might need to find a quick Plan B to have any hope of pulling the upset.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Tuesday, December 31 at 7:30 p.m.

Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Penn State vs. Boise State In-Season Trends

Jack Fredericks has put it pretty simply: Penn State essentially only ever loses to two teams: Ohio State and Michigan. Now that Oregon’s in the Big Ten, the Ducks can be added to that list as well, but the Nittany Lions consistently beat the teams they should beat. The last time the Nittany Lions lost to a team they were favored to beat was 2021 against Michigan State, and the Spartans made a New Year’s Six bowl that year.

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Boise has seemed to be gasping to the finish line as the enormity of the situation caught up with the Broncos. They went just 2-3 ATS down the stretch, and they have played to the under in four of their past five games.

Weather

Temperatures will sit in the mid 60s, so the roof might be opened tonight.

The Difference-Makers

So much of what Boise State does rides on Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty was runner up for the Heisman Trophy for a reason, and that’s because nobody was able to slow him down all season. The Broncos’ running back needs 132 yards to best Barry Sanders’ all-time mark for yards in a season, which he’d almost certainly do if Boise gets another game.

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Penn State counters with a pair of backs, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Together, they represent a matchup nightmare that Boise State might not have the personnel to stop.

The Pick

This really couldn’t have been a much worse matchup for Boise State. The Broncos would have been better off getting the likes of Georgia or Oregon, who don’t boast as strong a run defense as Penn State does.

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The Nittany Lions win with defense, and that doesn’t fit well with what Boise wants to do. It’s been a great season for the Broncos, but it’s tough to see the Fiesta Bowl magic continuing here.