Padres vs. Nationals: Thursday, July 25, 2024

PADRES VS. NATIONALS: THURSDAY, JULY 25, 2024 — So far, so good for San Diego coming out of the All-Star Break. The Padres really needed to get off to a strong start to stay in the playoff race, and they’ve done that. After dropping their first game post-break to Cleveland, the Padres have won four straight and now sit just behind St. Louis for the final playoff spot on percentage points.

Whether this is a genuine surge or simply San Diego’s ability to beat Washington remains to be seen. What has been clear is that the Padres have enjoyed facing the Nationals this year. Fifty years after the Padres were supposed to move to the District, they’ve tortured it in a different way, winning all five meetings between the teams.

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And truth be told, that has likely punctured Washington’s faint hopes at a playoff run. The Nats weren’t expected to contend this year, but they’d played well enough to stay within shouting distance of a wild card. When they took five of six from Milwaukee and Cincinnati, their chances looked reasonable. But a sweep here would bring Washington back to reality. This team dropped six of seven to the Mets and Cardinals before the surge, and they’re about to leave for St. Louis and Arizona.

Things get no easier from there, as the Nats will see Baltimore, Philadelphia, Atlanta and the Yankees in August. In short, there’s a good chance that the Nationals are dead men walking, and the Padres are simply administering last rites.

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Thursday, July 25 at 12:05 p.m. EST

Where: Nationals Park, Washington

Starting Pitchers: Dylan Cease, SD (9-8, 3.76 ERA, 159 K’s) vs. Patrick Corbin, WAS (2-9, 3.46 ERA, 105 K’s)

Public Bets: 80% on San Diego

Public Money: 67% on San Diego

Padres vs. Nationals In-Season Trends

Dylan Cease is on a strikeout tear right now. He’s fanned 21 hitters in his past two starts, and that came against Atlanta and Cleveland. He also allowed just two hits in those two games and ended up with a comfortable shutout victory. That kind of performance would fit well with what the Padres have done to the Nationals in 2024, as all but one of their five wins have come by at least two runs. In this series in Washington, San Diego has outscored the home side 16-3.

Patrick Corbin might have a hard time stemming that tide. He pitched a little better last time out, but he’s mostly struggled all season for the Nationals. Ever since the World Series in 2019, he has not been the same player. He’s been at his worst in day games, posting a 6.08 ERA. Run prevention certainly hasn’t been his strong suit; his past four opponents have each scored at least five runs.

Players to Watch

You really couldn’t go wrong with choosing someone to watch for the Padres last time out. The lineup got 20 hits and scored 12 runs, and everyone hit. Xander Bogaerts looks like a good choice here, as he’s had 10 hits in his past four games.

Luis Garcia Jr. had been in a small slump by his standards, as he hadn’t hit in two straight games before getting two hits on Wednesday. He appears to be back in form.

The Prediction

San Diego knows it has an opportunity here and cannot afford to let anything pass it by. The Padres have to make the most of every chance down the stretch because of the sheer logjam of teams ahead of them

A sweep of the Nationals sets them up to survive the upcoming slog. San Diego has a dreaded trip up I-95 to face the Orioles after this series, and they’ll see the Dodgers when they get back to California. In short, the Padres have to get the job done here.