Padres vs. Dodgers: Thursday, September 26, 2024

PADRES VS. DODGERS: THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2024 — This game means the world to San Diego, because one win can allow the Padres to set their pitching rotation for the wild card series. Barring a complete Los Angeles collapse, the Padres probably aren’t catching the Dodgers for the NL West title.

Doing so would require a win here, a sweep of the Diamondbacks (doable) and for the Dodgers to lose at least two of three to the Rockies (much less so). San Diego does have the tiebreaker if it can catch Los Angeles, but realistically, it isn’t worth the effort. Instead, the Padres’ best-case scenario is to win here and ensure Arizona can’t catch them for fourth place.

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For the Dodgers, a win lets them control their own narrative. If they win here, they go into the final series with the Rockies knowing that they’re the NL West champions and simply need to equal or better the Phillies’ weekend result to clinch the top overall seed. If they lose here, they’ll need the Phillies to drop at least one game to the Nationals to avoid the No. 2 seed, and they could drop out of the bye entirely if they somehow got swept in Denver.

And so this sets up as a critical game for both teams. Both already know they’re in the postseason, but they’re jockeying for playoff positioning. And with this format, that’s a pretty big deal.

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Thursday, September 26 at 10:10 p.m. EST

Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles

Starting Pitchers: Joe Musgrove, SD (7-6, 3.43 ERA, 92 K’s) vs. Walker Buehler, LAD (4-8, 4.30 ERA, 103 K’s)

Public Bets: 78% on Los Angeles

Public Money: 91% on Los Angeles

Padres vs. Dodgers In-Season Trends

The Dodgers might be fine winning the NL West and even holding the top seed without winning this game, but they really need to get past the mental block of the Padres for themselves. The Dodgers got run over by San Diego in the NLDS two years ago, and the Padres have had their number again, beating them eight out of 12 this season. Los Angeles is 1-6 in the postseason over the past two seasons, and unless the Mets and Braves both get hot and keep the Diamondbacks out of the postseason, the Dodgers are probably going to have to get past either San Diego or Arizona to win the pennant.

The Padres have really done well in this matchup, winning seven of 10 overall and three of five in Los Angeles. For whatever reason, San Diego is just not intimidated by Los Angeles, which only adds to the Dodgers’ need to get this win.

Players to Watch

If the Dodgers are going to go anywhere this October, Walker Buehler has to get back to his old self. So far, that has not happened. Buehler has at least made it through five innings in his past four starts, which had not been the case before September. But he didn’t pitch all that well in his past few home starts, and he’s got a 4.61 ERA in his past three starts.

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Fernando Tatis Jr. seems to be in top form for the postseason. In his past seven games, he’s exceeded his total bases on six occasions. If he gets any hits, it’s been pretty safe to assume that he’s going to at least get a double out of one of them

The Prediction

The Dodgers don’t have the right pitching matchup in a game that San Diego needs to win. Buehler is still trying to round into form, and it’s clear that he isn’t there at the moment.

San Diego has played well in this matchup for a while, and the Padres don’t have any qualms about playing in Dodger Stadium. This seems to be an opportunity for the Padres to choke off the Diamondbacks and get their rotation ready for whoever they’ll face in the wild card round.