Padres vs. Diamondbacks: Sunday, September 29, 2024

PADRES VS. DIAMONDBACKS: SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2024 — Could the much-hyped MLB Monday turn out to be completely irrelevant? If the Diamondbacks don’t win today, it might be much ado about nothing. The Monday doubleheader between Atlanta and New York currently holds plenty of meaning, but a loss by Arizona could mean it’s for nothing but seeding.

If the Diamondbacks lose, the Braves are in the playoffs no matter what happens the rest of the way. But it gets worse: an Arizona loss means the Mets would only have to win one more game to reach the postseason. And that could happen in one of two ways: the Mets could beat Milwaukee today and take all the drama out of Monday, or the Braves could decide they’d rather set their rotation and allow the Mets into the postseason by giving up one of the two games.

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For the Diamondbacks to make Monday matter, they must win Sunday to force the Braves to win at least once more. Even better for Arizona would be if Atlanta and New York both lost Sunday, which would put the Diamondbacks in the playoffs no matter what happens Monday. It’s a tough road, but it’s what the Diamondbacks have set for themselves.

San Diego has nothing to worry about. The Padres know they’re going to be in the playoffs. They also know that they’ll be playing round 1 in San Diego against somebody. In fact, it might be in the Padres’ best interest to lay down for the Diamondbacks here. Doing so would ensure that Atlanta and New York both have to go all out Monday to try to get the sweep, which could leave one of them sapped of pitching when they arrive in San Diego.

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Sunday, September 29 at 3:10 p.m. EST

Where: Chase Field, Phoenix

Starting Pitchers: Joe Musgrove, SD (2-5, 5.20 ERA, 63 K’s) vs. TBD, ARI

Public Bets: 73% on Arizona

Public Money: 94% on San Diego

Padres vs. Diamondbacks In-Season Trends

Oddly, the visiting team has won five of the past six meetings in this series. The past two games were games Arizona needed much more than San Diego, as the Padres just had to win once to lock themselves into the No. 4 slot. But the Diamondbacks just have not answered the bell in this series.

These teams also don’t play tight games. It seems one side just catches the other at the right or wrong time, as eight straight meetings have been decided by at least two runs.

Players to Watch

Ketel Marte blasted three straight home runs in the Brewers series, but he hasn’t homered in any of the Diamondbacks’ past four games. Getting his bat going again would make a big difference for the Diamondbacks.

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Donovan Solano blistered Arizona pitching with four hits in five appearances on Saturday, ending a four-game hitting slump. Getting his bat back to form would be important as San Diego rolls into playoff form.

The Prediction

The Padres just don’t have anything to play for here. They have no reason to go all out because they have to make sure they’re ready for Atlanta or New York later in the week. There’s a chance that it could be Arizona again, but more likely, it will be one of the Eastern teams with limited pitching. The Padres have to make sure they have the matchups to end the series in two games.

That means leaving this one alone. Don’t expect the Padres to deny the Diamondbacks here.