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Padres vs. Braves Expert Pick – April 6, 2023

Dan Angell, Contributor
Padres vs. Braves Expert Pick - April 6 2023
Padres vs. Braves Expert Pick - April 6 2023. Photo by Kevin C. Cox/ AFP

Padres vs. Braves Expert Pick - April 6th, 2023

PADRES VS. BRAVES EXPERT PICK - APRIL 6 2023 - One of these playoff teams from last year has gotten off to a great start, while the other’s off to a rather middling opening.

Atlanta’s pitching stepped up to start the week, going to St. Louis and holding the Cardinals to seven runs in three wins at Busch Stadium. Given that the Redbirds opened the year by hammering Toronto for 22 runs in three games, Atlanta’s pitching looks like it’s for real.

It'll need to be against San Diego, as the Padres’ offense broke out pretty well at the start of April.

The Padres boast a strong lineup, but the pitching hasn’t gotten off to a great start this season. Blake Snell got tagged for three runs in 4.1 innings in a 7-2 loss to Colorado, and that’s worrisome even if he doesn’t usually pitch well against the Rockies.

Petco Park is a known pitcher’s park, yet the Padres have given up 12 runs in their past two games. For the year, they’ve been outscored 28-25, hardly a shining example when opening with the lesser foes of the NL West.

If the Padres can’t get a better showing out of Snell in their first road game of the year, they’re in trouble.




The Odds

Matchup

Open

Spread

Points

Moneyline

San Diego Padres

(3-3 SU,
2-4 RL)

O7.5

+1.5

O7.5

+140

Atlanta Braves

(5-1 SU, 5-1 RL)

-1.5

-1.5

U7.5

-165

Tipoff

When: Thursday, April 6th at 7:20 pm EST

Where: Truist Park, Atlanta

Starting Pitchers: Blake Snell, SD (0-1, 6.23 ERA, 9 K’s) vs. Spencer Strider (1-0, 0.00 ERA, 9 K’s) 

Public Bets: 69% on Atlanta

Public Money: 66% on Atlanta

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 5th, 2023



San Diego vs. Atlanta In-Season Trends

Strider’ has only faced the Padres twice, and that was before Atlanta chose to make him a starter. Since then, he’s proven outstanding on the hill. In his past 20 starts, he’s held the opponent to two runs or less 16 times, and each time, he pitched into the sixth inning. That makes it harder to trust the Padres’ recent success in Atlanta, as they come into this having won four of their past five games in Georgia but haven’t seen this version of Strider before.

The recent total trends might be more trustworthy: San Diego and Atlanta have played OVER in four straight at Truist Park, and if the Padres are struggling to prevent runs at home against bad lineups, they’d likely have an even harder time against the Braves’ potent lineup. The OVER has cashed in seven of 10 road games, as books usually set it too low for San Diego because of the Petco Park effect. 

Atlanta also played outstanding baseball at home last season, going 43-13 in their final 56 home games in 2022. The Braves haven’t yet played an NL West opponent in 2023, but they usually dominate this division, going 15-6 in their past 21.

Players to Watch

Xander Bogaerts got rolling in April, hitting home runs in three out of four games during the season’s first full month. For the season, he’s hit safely in all six San Diego games and carries a .409 batting average into this game. Bogaerts has never hit against Strider, but he’s hot right now and might be a good gamble if you’re looking to bet on a home run pick.

Matt Olson is feast or famine, as he’s leading the Braves in both home runs and strikeouts. In 26 at-bats, 12 have been strikeouts and three have resulted in home runs. If you can find a prop on him to either record two strikeouts or hit a home run, it’s worth a look.

The Pick

The fact that Strider got off to a strong start with a nine-strikeout performance and no earned runs says that his 2022 season was likely for real. Snell’s start really brought up cause for concern, and the fact that he’s pitching on the road against a stronger lineup isn’t ideal. Throw in Atlanta’s strong bullpen, and the Braves look like the right move. 



Dan's Pick

Braves ML (-165)

Over 7.5

Author

  • Dan is originally from Virginia and has covered basketball games across the country over the past 18 years. He now resides in Indianapolis and loves a good defensive showcase. His Twitter @danangell11.

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