Orioles vs. Yankees: Thursday, September 26, 2024

ORIOLES VS. YANKEES: THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2024 — Much like the Padres-Dodgers matchup, the Orioles and Yankees pretty much know their playoff fates. Baltimore just needs one win to lock itself into the No. 4 seed and get ready to face either Kansas City or Detroit. There’s a chance there could be a different opponent, but the Orioles more than likely know their playoff fate.

New York, on the other hand, has Cleveland to worry about. The Yankees and the Guardians will be the top two seeds in the American League, assuming that New York doesn’t commit an absolute pratfall against Pittsburgh. For the Yankees to lose the American League East, they’d need to get swept by the Pirates and have Baltimore sweep Minnesota to put the teams in a tie for first place. Chances are pretty low that that’s happening.

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So the pressure is clearly on the home team. Baltimore honestly doesn’t need any more wins unless Kansas City and Detroit both run the table to close out the season, but the Orioles probably aren’t going to get swept against the Twins regardless. The Orioles still have something to play for here, as they’d like to know with absolute certainty that they’ll be playing in Camden Yards in the postseason.

Given how hot the Tigers are and how the Orioles already struggled with Detroit, Baltimore can’t have that series move to Comerica Park. And that means the Orioles still have something to play for, even if they almost certainly can’t win the AL East.

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Thursday, September 26 at 7:10 p.m. EST

Where: Yankee Stadium, New York

Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes, BAL (15-8, 2.95 ERA, 172 K’s) vs. Gerrit Cole, NYY (7-5, 3.67 ERA, 94 K’s)

Public Bets: 82% on New York

Public Money: 57% on New York

Orioles vs. Yankees In-Season Trends

Maybe the Orioles have done this on purpose to try to get themselves both momentum and a trip up I-95 to Yankee Stadium. Last year, Baltimore was the top overall seed in the American League and promptly got blown out by Texas in a three-game sweep. This year, the Orioles will go through the wild-card round and then face the top seed if they survive, which could mean the Yankees.

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And if that happens, the Orioles are fine with that, as they’re 4-1 SU in their past five games in New York. The visiting team has actually won six of the past seven matchups, with a 6-5 Oriole win at Camden Yards in July the one exception. Baltimore simply does not fear this Yankees squad, which could be a big concern for New York if these teams meet again in the playoffs.

Players to Watch

It’s almost scary how well the Orioles hit the Yankees on Wednesday. Baltimore pounded out 17 hits, every member of the Orioles’ lineup hit safely at least once and the Birds scored nine runs for their troubles. It could have been even worse: Baltimore left 18 men on base. Gunnar Henderson is a big part of that, collecting 12 hits in Baltimore’s past seven games.

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Aaron Judge has now homered in four consecutive games. It’s obvious that he’s the player to watch when the Yankees play. But that’s how good of a season he’s having.

The Prediction

Gerrit Cole isn’t quite as dominant as he’s been in past years, while Corbin Burnes has had a fine season. The Orioles also really seem to be comfortable in the Bronx.

Even though Baltimore’s an underdog, that shouldn’t make anyone pause. The Orioles have been the underdog in five straight wins against New York. With the chance to lock up home field in the wild card series and make sure it has the pitching matchups it wants, I don’t expect Baltimore to falter here.