Orioles vs. Guardians: Thursday, August 1, 2024

ORIOLES VS. GUARDIANS: THURSDAY, AUGUST 1, 2024 — As most people expected, the Baltimore Orioles are leading the AL East and have an excellent shot at securing the best record in the American League. Baltimore was a powerhouse last season, and the Orioles seem to have used the lessons from the Texas loss to come back even stronger this year.

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As almost nobody expected, Cleveland sits a game ahead of Baltimore. Baseball has been waiting for the bottom to fall out for the Guardians, but it hasn’t happened. Even with Shane Bieber out for the season, Cleveland has continued to win. With the Phillies seemingly in a free-fall, the Guardians have overtaken Philadelphia for the best record in baseball.

And that makes this weekend absolutely critical in the American League. Neither team is totally secure in first place, as the Orioles still have the Yankees hot on their heels and the Guardians have to contend with the Twins and Royals. Put simply, the pressure is on in Cleveland.

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Thursday, August 1 at 6:40 p.m. EST

Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland

Starting Pitchers: TBD vs. Ben Lively, CLE (9-6, 3.44 ERA, 86 K’s)

Public Bets: 58% on Cleveland

Public Money: 85% on Baltimore

Orioles vs. Guardians In-Season Trends

Close games tend to rule the day when the Orioles and Guardians get together. Out of the teams’ past six meetings, three have been decided by a single run and two others were decided by two runs. The Orioles haven’t been playing close games lately, but that’s also in part because they kept playing the Blue Jays, who have given up on the season.

Cleveland has been used to tight games from facing Detroit and Philadelphia. The Tigers always play the Guardians tough, and Cleveland’s defense has been stellar all season. The under has cashed in six of the Guardians’ past seven contests.

Players to Watch

Can Lively handle the pressure of facing another tough opponent? He seems to have reset nicely at the All-Star break, as he held the Phillies to just a single solo home run in six innings last time out. He’s given up two runs or less in his past three starts, but he faces one of the best offenses in the game.

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Ryan Mountcastle swung a hot bat in the Toronto series, but again, it was Toronto. When the Guardians came to Baltimore, Mountcastle was quiet. He got three hits for the weekend, but he squeezed them all into one game in the series. Keeping things going against Cleveland’s ace bullpen might be difficult.

The Prediction

The value is lacking on Baltimore here. To back the Orioles at close to even money, you’d want the likes of Grayson Rodriguez or Corbin Burnes going in this series. But they both pitched against the Blue Jays. And while Baltimore won both games, you get the feeling that the Orioles did not set up their pitchers well for this series.

These are the kind of mistakes that you can’t make in a pennant race. Baltimore’s bullpen isn’t on par with Cleveland’s, and the Orioles seem to be on track to ask their bullpen to go nine innings. That’s not a preferable matchup. Cleveland makes sense here.