Oregon vs. Michigan Expert Pick and Prediction – November 2, 2024

OREGON VS. MICHIGAN EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 2, 2024 — Oregon seems to have gone to another level since its win over Ohio State. The Ducks now have a clear path to the Big Ten title game with Ohio State out of the way, and they’re going to be favored in every game they play the rest of the way, barring a screw-up before then.

The past two games have really shown just how strong the Ducks are: they buried both Purdue and Illinois by a combined score of 73-9. Beating Purdue might have been mundane, although the Ducks were coming off the Ohio State win and could have easily been a letdown spot six days later. But beating Illinois was a statement. The Illini looked like they were rising in the Big Ten, but the Ducks quickly brought them back to reality with a 38-9 smackdown.

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And that has to worry Michigan. The Wolverines are 5-3 and on track for a bowl game, but that’s a far cry from where this program usually is. Michigan is, of course, the defending national champion, but this program backslid with Jim Harbaugh leaving for the NFL. It wasn’t a total backslide, but the Wolverines have still ceded some ground.

And Michigan doesn’t really have any more ground to cede with how the landscape of the Big Ten has shifted. The Wolverines don’t have a chance at the playoff now, but the biggest question is whether they can make a bowl at all. With Indiana’s rise, Michigan now has to face three of the four strongest teams in the Big Ten over its final four games. If the Wolverines can’t pull an upset or beat Northwestern, they’ll fall all the way out of the bowl picture after winning last year’s title game. And if that happens, the pressure on Sherrone Moore escalates drastically.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, November 2 at 3:30 p.m.

Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich. 

TV: CBS

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Oregon vs. Michigan In-Season Trends

Oregon wasn’t covering early because the sportsbooks hadn’t yet figured out just where the Ducks were. The Ducks were a bit overrated early in the year as Dan Lanning figured out which pieces went where, but the books now have a good idea. Oregon has now been beating expectations, covering in its past three games. Part of this could be the Ducks looking to make statements, but part also seems to be Oregon rounding into form.

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It’s been rough for Michigan to meet expectations. Part of that was because with a new coach and quarterback, nobody knew what to expect from the Wolverines early on. Michigan has been winning close games at home, but the Wolverines have also played a really soft schedule among the Big Ten Plus Eight. Out of five Big Ten games, Michigan has beaten one team that has a winning record: Minnesota. The teams have a common opponent in Illinois, and the Wolverines fell by two touchdowns to the same Illini squad Oregon just beat by 29.

Weather

Temperatures will sit in the mid 50s at kickoff, so this is perfect fall weather in the Big Ten.

The Difference-Makers

With Jack Tuttle’s retirement, the job has fallen to Davis Warren, and the Michigan offense is a mess. The Wolverines won against Michigan State despite managing under 300 yards because of the defense, but they need more from Warren under center.

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Dillon Gabriel has really seemed to come into his own as the season has gone on. Oregon’s offense has been pretty consistent for at least 30 points, even as its defense has gotten more ferocious. Gabriel is playing similarly to Bo Nix last year.

The Pick

Put Michigan in something besides maize and blue and winged helmets, and this spread is probably around 20 points. It makes no sense to have Oregon giving only 14.5 points when the Ducks just gave 23 to Illinois and won the game by 29.

Illinois is better than Michigan and has already proven that it is better than Michigan. And yet, playing in Ann Arbor is supposedly worth four touchdowns? That doesn’t make any sense, and it seems clear that the books are banking on Michigan’s name. It doesn’t seem like it’s going to come close to working. Oregon should roll.