Oregon State vs. Oregon Expert Pick and Prediction – November 24, 2023

OREGON STATE VS. OREGON EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 18, 2023 — Could this be the last time we see the Civil War? If so, that would be a shame, given how Oregon State and Oregon have produced some entertaining games over the past few seasons. It’s taken Jonathan Smith time to get his program to Oregon’s level, but the Beavers have proven they can compete, winning three of the past seven matchups.

But there’s one problem there: all of those wins came in Corvallis.

In Eugene, the Beavers haven’t broken through since 2007. More worrisome for Oregon State, that’s the only time they’ve won at Autzen Stadium since 1995, which was also the year that Oregon started its rise to the national program it is today. The Ducks have won 13 of 14 over the Beavers at home, and while they’ve gotten closer under Smith, most of them haven’t been particularly close.

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With no games yet scheduled, this might be the last time Oregon and Oregon State play for a few seasons. The Ducks are off to the Big Ten next year, with the Beavers left behind. And with a win here, Oregon will get a second crack at Washington for the last Pac-12 title.

Meanwhile, Oregon State still has a chance for a New Year’s Six bowl, but only if it can get to nine wins. If they can get there, they could also knock the Ducks out of the Pac-12 title game, which would be a sweet parting gift for everyone in orange and black.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Friday, November 24th at 8:30 p.m. EST

Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore.

TV: Fox

Public Bets: 58% on Oregon State

Public Money: 76% on Oregon State

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of November 23rd, 2023.

Oregon State vs. Oregon In-Season Trends

Oregon has a tendency of allowing teams to hang around with it early, then kicking into high gear once the second quarter comes around. Arizona State was the exception, as the Sun Devils were overmatched from the opening minute, but most teams hang with the Ducks for 15 minutes before succumbing to Oregon’s closing kick.

Oregon State fits well with that, as the Beavers have led after 15 minutes in 10 of their past 12 outings. A great example came against Arizona, where the Beavers were picked to lead after 15 but fail to cover the spread.

That’s exactly what happened in Tucson, and that’s another issue for Oregon State: covering on the road remains a problem. The Beavers are just 3-5 ATS in their past eight Pac-12 road games, and four of their past six trips to Eugene ended with a double-digit loss.

Weather

At least it won’t be snowing, but it won’t be pleasant. Temperatures will sit at 22 degrees in this one, and wind gusts could affect things.

The Difference-Makers

This is going to be a case of strength on strength in both ways. On the Oregon side, Bo Nix has had a fantastic season, but he’s facing an Oregon State defense that just held Washington quarterback Michael Penix to his lowest output of the season. Nix did win the battle with Oregon State on the stat sheet last year, although the Beavers’ defense won where it mattered most.

Damien Martinez will have similar problems with the Oregon defense. Martinez has dominated on the ground all year, but Oregon’s defense is one of two in the Pac-12 along with UCLA that has more forced fumbles than rushing touchdowns conceded this year. Martinez found some holes in the Bruin defense in that win, but never found the end zone.

The Pick

This number feels a little too wide for my liking. Oregon is excellent and has proven it all season, but 13.5 points seems a bit high for my taste. Yes, the Beavers have lost twice on the road in the Pac-12, but the losses were by three to Washington State and by four to Arizona, neither a bad defeat.

Oregon should get the win, but it’ll probably be by one score, not by two touchdowns.