Oregon State vs. Notre Dame Expert Pick and Prediction – March 29, 2024 

OREGON STATE VS. NOTRE DAME EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 29, 2024 — For the first time since 2019, Oregon State’s a win away from the Elite Eight. The Beavers had been a mainstay from 2014 to 2021, making the tournament and winning a game every year, but they hadn’t been in the field at all in the past two seasons.

With the Pac-12 imploding, Oregon State came up with a superb season before it leaves those old rivalries behind, and they’ve done it with defense. Four of their past six opponents haven’t broken 60 in regulation, and the exceptions were both Stanford.

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Notre Dame also knows how to play that way, although it’s not the Irish’s preference. In winning the ACC tournament, Virginia Tech and NC State both forced Notre Dame to play defense first, and the Irish responded beautifully. Neither opponent broke 55 points, as the Irish won their first ACC title since 2019.

That was also the year the Irish last survived this round. The past two seasons have ended here for Notre Dame, and the end came in different ways. NC State won a classic in 2022, while Maryland boatraced the Irish for 76 points in a 17-point win. And that seemingly led the Irish to focus a bit more on running outside of ACC play to try to keep up with quick, high-scoring teams.

They won’t need that lesson here against the Beavers, but they’ll certainly need it if they survive here. Unless Indiana can pull a titanic upset, the winner gets the unenviable challenge of trying to scale Mount Gamecock.

The Odds 

Tipoff 

When: Friday, March 29 at 2:30 p.m. EST 

Where: MVP Arena, Albany, N.Y.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable 

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 28th, 2024

Oregon State vs. Notre Dame In-Season Trends 

There are two key things to know about Oregon State. The Beavers make you work for everything, and they rarely give away anything. Oregon State tied with Stanford for the lowest opposing field goal percentage on the Pac-12, and only Oregon and Stanford put teams on the line fewer than the Beavers did. The Beavers also make teams wait; they played a slower tempo than everyone in their league except Oregon. They don’t speed you up on either side; they forced the fewest turnovers in the league.

Notre Dame is very different. The Fighting Irish ranked second in the ACC at forcing turnovers, and they love to speed things up with pressure and steals. That’s why Notre Dame led the ACC in points scored per game and why this game will be a contrast in styles.

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However, don’t mistake the Irish women for the Alabama men. They can play defense and led the ACC in 3-point defense this season. They love to run, but they also get back on defense, which is why seven of their past five opponents have failed to get to 60 against Notre Dame.

The Difference-Makers 

The Irish barely use their bench and barely use two of their starters for scoring. Sonia Citron and Maddy Westbeld didn’t come out of the game against Ole Miss in round 2, while Hannah Hidalgo played 38 minutes. Those three took 38 of Notre Dame’s 52 shots, combining to score 56 in the win over the Rebels. Westbeld ended up with four fouls in that game, and getting her in foul trouble could be big for the Beavers.

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Raegan Beers put up some solid shooting percentages in wins over Eastern Washington and Nebraska, but she wasn’t as aggressive as she’s been for most of the season. The Beavers got away with a C-plus from her in those games; they can’t do the same in this situation and expect to win.

The Pick 

The Pac-12 has been a great league in its final season. But it feels like being the fifth-best in that conference just isn’t enough at this level. To win this game, the Beavers will have to avoid critical mistakes with the basketball and keep the Irish from getting in a rhythm.

I think Oregon State can do it well enough on defense. On offense, this reads like a problem for a Beavers team that’s really a year away from its potential.