Oregon State vs. Gonzaga Expert Pick and Prediction – January 28, 2025

OREGON STATE VS. GONZAGA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 28, 2025 — It’s rare when you can say Gonzaga is seeking revenge. It’s even rarer when the Bulldogs are looking for revenge on a conference rival. But with Oregon State in the West Coast Conference now, the Bulldogs have a tougher slate than most years.

The Beavers proved that true when they won the first meeting, a 97-89 victory in overtime in Corvallis. The Bulldogs then followed with another stunner, a home loss to Santa Clara. And while that means the WCC is stronger than it’s been in years, it also means that Gonzaga isn’t anywhere near as strong as it’s been in past seasons.

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This year’s Gonzaga squad has already taken five losses, and if the season ended today, the Bulldogs would be sitting on the 10 line for the tournament. Oregon State’s nowhere near the bubble right now, but the path is still there for the Beavers.

But getting there would require Oregon State to win somewhere other than Corvallis. Right now, the Beavers are the dreaded home-court hero, as they’re 0-4 in true road games and have a neutral-site loss to Nebraska. A win here would put Oregon State back in the conversation,

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Tuesday, January 28 at 11 p.m.

Where: McCarthey Athletic Center, Spokane, Wash.

TV: ESPN2

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Oregon State vs. Gonzaga In-Season Trends

Oregon State’s slow pace has played in the minds of bettors. The Beavers have been an over machine as of late, going 9-1 to the over despite slowing games down. The one under came against San Diego, and that because the Toreros shot 29% that night in an 81-54 rout. Otherwise, it’s been one game after another hitting the number.

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Gonzaga usually gets favored by embarrassing numbers, and the Bulldogs haven’t been able to make them hit. They’ve covered just twice in their past 10 games, only doing so against Portland and Loyola Marymount. The talent is there, but this Gonzaga team hasn’t put it together.

The Difference-Makers

Michael Rataj went for a career-high 29 points when the teams met in Corvallis. Oregon State won that game by shooting 58% from the floor, and Rataj was a big part of that. He’s got to take control of the game again.

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If he doesn’t, Graham Ike probably will at the other end. Ike was a monster last year for the Bulldogs, and has picked up where he left off. Oregon State really had no answer for him last time, and he should be even better playing at home this time around.

The Pick

Gonzaga keeps getting favored by too many points. The Bulldogs can certainly take a team to the woodshed, and Oregon State probably isn’t going to come close to shooting 58% from the floor again. That could spell trouble, but the Beavers have done enough to suggest that this spread is too high.

The Bulldogs should win, but this feels closer to a 10-pointer than the 15.5 you’ve got to lay. I’ll take the Beavers.