Oregon State vs. Boise State Expert Pick and Prediction – November 29, 2024

OREGON STATE VS. BOISE STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 29, 2024 — With Tulane botching its shot at the College Football Playoff, Boise State now essentially has its pathway clear. All the Broncos have to do is avoid a bad loss and they will be in the playoff.

This matchup with Oregon State doesn’t really affect whether Boise will be in the playoff or not. That will be decided next week in the Mountain West championship game. But it does affect where Boise will be in the playoff if it makes it.

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If the Broncos win both games, they will be a top four seed. There’s no path for the Big 12 champion to catch a one-loss Boise State whose only blemish is a close loss at top-ranked Oregon. Depending on who wins the ACC, Boise State could get as high as third in the seeding.

If they lose to Oregon State, that dream is over. Boise would still qualify as the top Group of 5 team, but it would be as the No. 12 seed at best. A two-loss Boise with a defeat to the Beavers would have serious questions compared to the Big 12 champion, even one with three defeats. If the Broncos fall here, they’re likely looking at a road game in the playoff.

Oregon State faces its own pressure. At 5-6, the Beavers have to win to spend December anywhere other than Corvallis, Oregon. The Beavers did play their best game of the season against Washington State to win the Pac-2, but they’ve been a major disappointment this season. They’ll need an even better effort here to take down Boise.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Friday, November 29 at Noon

Where: Bronco Stadium, Boise, Idaho 

TV: Fox

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Oregon State vs. Boise State In-Season Trends

Is Boise starting to feel the pressure? The Broncos have looked inconsistent over the past five weeks, playing three nervy games while winning the other two comfortably. The pattern would suggest this being an easy win for the Broncos, but that would be problematic: the other half of the pattern suggests that Boise would be in trouble in the Mountain West title game. Obviously, Boise would rather its nervy self show up here if it has to emerge at all: it cannot afford to lose that one.

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Oregon State has tended to rise to the level of its opponents. When facing a good team, the Beavers bring their best and play inspired football. When facing a weak team, Oregon State can’t be bothered. There’s no reason that a team can beat Washington State by scoring 41 points and lose 44-7 to California in the same season. The Beavers also own a win over Colorado State and played UNLV tight. Those are the two best teams in the Mountain West besides Boise State.

Weather

A 10 a.m. local kickoff on Black Friday means temperatures in the mid-20s in the Treasure Valley. Yeah, this is going to be a lot of fun.

The Difference-Makers

Is Ashton Jeanty at full strength? If he is, he’s the key to the Boise offense. If he’s not, the Broncos might have to scramble. Oregon State is sure to focus on Jeanty, as the Boise back has over 2,000 rushing yards and is a favorite for the Heisman Trophy.

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The Beavers do have a solid running back in Anthony Hankerson. But if the ground game gets stopped, Oregon State really doesn’t have a good plan B.

The Pick

This is a classic trap game for the Broncos. They should blow Oregon State out of the building, but the Beavers really don’t want to end their season in Boise. (Now that I’ve said that, watch them win this game and somehow land in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.) Plus, Boise now has as close to a freebie as you can get for teams not named Georgia.

I do think the Broncos win, but I think Oregon State makes them sweat some.