Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Georgia Expert Pick and Prediction – December 30, 2023

ORANGE BOWL: FLORIDA STATE VS. GEORGIA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 30, 2023 — In another time, this would be one of the most anticipated bowl games of the season. In another time, Florida State might even be playing for a share of the national championship with a win over Georgia.

But those days are over now, and what we have is one of the biggest messes we’ve seen in a bowl game. Florida State should have been in the playoff instead of Alabama, but now that they’re here, they’ve had a mass exodus of people with no interest in sticking around for the Orange Bowl.

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And the line reflects that, as the Seminoles come in undefeated and getting nearly three touchdowns against Georgia. The Bulldogs did manage to keep a good chunk of their team intact, so this might not be quite as ugly as Missouri-Ohio State was. However, it could be ugly for a different reason, as the Seminole backups almost certainly cannot keep pace with Georgia.

Then again, the Dawgs have been here before and had it go wrong. In 2019, Georgia neglected to show up in the first three quarters of the Sugar Bowl, found itself down two touchdowns and lost to a Texas team that had no business beating the Dawgs. Will Georgia have the motivation to do the job this time?

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, December 30 at 4 p.m. EST

Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: 85% on Georgia 

Public Money: 86% on Georgia

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of December 29th, 2023.

Florida State vs. Georgia In-Season Trends

Out of its final five games, Florida State only hit the over once, and that was because the Seminoles almost hit the number by themselves. Against North Alabama, the Seminoles scored 58 points and the total was 59.5. Otherwise, Florida State usually came up well short of the total because of its superb defense and sub-par offense.

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Georgia also played four of its final five to the under. The Dawgs weren’t as dominant on defense as in past years, but the offense also wasn’t anywhere near what it was when Stetson Bennett was running things. Other than facing Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss’s soft defense, Georgia just wasn’t putting up huge numbers. This game seems to have that baked into the number, but it’s tough to say given how nobody knows what Florida State will look like.

Weather

These will be ideal conditions for football, at least. You never know what the weather will bring to Miami in the winter, given that rain can happen at any time. But in this case, the rain’s going to stay away and the teams should have perfect conditions.

The Difference-Makers

Georgia needs more out of Carson Beck than it got in the SEC title game. Beck didn’t hurt Georgia’s cause, but he didn’t do anything to help the Dawgs either by going without a touchdown. Florida State will look to do something similar, as the Seminoles’ only chance is to keep the Georgia offense from getting going.

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Brock Glenn really doesn’t have anything in the way of weapons to work with. He’ll be missing his two best running backs and his three best pass-catchers. To make matters worse, he’s the third choice for the Seminoles at quarterback. Glenn had his ground game and passing targets available against Louisville, and all he could muster was 55 passing yards. Odds are, this one won’t go much better.

The Pick

The under has to be the play here. The Seminoles still have a solid defense even after the exodus, but they won’t be able to do much of anything on the offensive side of the ball. They only scored 16 on Louisville last time out, and that’s the main reason they’re here and not getting ready to face Michigan.

I doubt Georgia’s going to have much motivation to be here either. I don’t think this one will go down as one of the better games in either program’s long history. Georgia should win, but I don’t think this becomes quite as big of a blowout as everyone expects, given Georgia still hasn’t been great on offense all year. The points are just too high to trust the Dawgs here.