Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Expert Pick and Prediction – November 4, 2023

OKLAHOMA VS. OKLAHOMA STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 4, 2023 — What appears to be the final Bedlam Game for several years has taken on a new level of importance. After losing to South Alabama and Iowa State, Oklahoma State was left for dead. But the Cowboys have come back to win four straight and have charged into the Big 12 championship picture.

Just as Oklahoma State is catching fire, Oklahoma seems to be spinning its wheels. The Sooners barely escaped from winless Central Florida two weeks ago, then finally got caught at Kansas and took their first loss of the year. The Sooners now find themselves in a five-way tie atop the Big 12, with the Jayhawks also lurking below the surface.

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The way the Jayhawks bested the Sooners is cause for concern for Oklahoma, because Oklahoma State presents many similar problems. Last week, Kansas didn’t have a passing touchdown, but the Jayhawks ripped off four on the ground. They averaged 5.5 yards per carry, and the Sooners never found a real answer.

That’s a recipe for disaster against Ollie Gordon, who leads the nation in rushing. Over the past two games, Gordon has rushed for 553 yards and six touchdowns, and he’s gone for 1,087 yards and 10 scores on the year. He’s done that against Cincinnati and West Virginia, both of whom have comparable run defenses to Oklahoma. If the Sooners can’t wrap up, the Cowboys could cause a Bedlam stunner.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, November 4th at 3:30 p.m. EDT

Where: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Okla.

TV: ABC

Public Bets: 69% on Oklahoma State

Public Money: 63% on Oklahoma State

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of November 3rd, 2023.

Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State In-Season Trends

Last season was a rarity in this rivalry, as Oklahoma’s 28-13 win marked the lowest winning score in a Bedlam Game since 2009. Stillwater has traditionally meant offense, which is why the total’s as high as it is. None of the past eight meetings in Stillwater have seen a winning score lower than 34 points, and six of those eight have exceeded 70 points.

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Historically, if you’re betting on the Cowboys in this game, you’re betting on points. Only the 2001 game and the 1995 game saw Oklahoma State win the game with fewer than 30 points scored. But both of those wins came in Norman, not at home. In Stillwater, the Cowboys haven’t scored fewer than 30 points in a winning effort since 1966.

Weather

Wind could be an issue affecting the Sooners’ passing attack, as winds will blow at 14 miles per hour. Otherwise, weather shouldn’t play much of a role, as temperatures will sit around 70 degrees.

The Difference-Makers

It’s rare to get a back like Ollie Gordon these days. Most times, a team needs two or three backs to share the load these days, but Gordon just seems to get stronger as the game goes on.

Ever since Mike Gundy made the decision to focus the offense on Gordon and let Alan Bowman and Leon Johnson figure out the rest, the Cowboys have looked impressive on offense. Oklahoma State’s given up just one sack during Gordon’s stretch, which shows how well the whole offense is working.

Dillon Gabriel hasn’t been quite as sharp the last two weeks, posting only middling quarterback ratings. Oklahoma hasn’t been playing to its potential, and the lack of effective play from the Sooner passing attack is a big reason why. He’s only thrown two interceptions in this stretch, but for whatever reason, something has looked off.

The Pick

Always expect points in a Bedlam Game. It really is that simple most years. I don’t see Oklahoma stopping Oklahoma State on the ground, and I can’t see Gabriel getting slowed down here.

Beyond that, this game means everything to Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have one last chance to get one over on Oklahoma and ruin the Sooners’ chances at a Big 12 title before they leave for the SEC. Given how similarly Oklahoma State plays to Kansas, I think the Cowboys can hang around here.