Oklahoma vs. Navy Expert Pick and Prediction – December 27, 2024

OKLAHOMA VS. NAVY EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 27, 2024 — This is the rare bowl game these days where both sides have some motivation. Oklahoma’s motivation mostly lies with its coach, but it’s motivation nonetheless. A loss here would leave the Sooners under .500 for the second time in Brent Venables’ three years in Norman.

Oklahoma is not the type of school that takes mediocrity well. The Sooners are used to the kind of winning done by Barry Switzer and Bob Stoops, not barely making it into a pre-New Year’s bowl game. Oklahoma was nowhere near ready for the SEC this season, going just 2-6 in its first year in the league.

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And now they have one of the worst matchups for a Power 4 team in bowl season. Every power conference team hopes that they don’t draw Army, Navy or Air Force in bowl season, because it means that they’re going to see something they haven’t faced all year. The Midshipmen run the triple option, and they clearly run it better than anyone else this year, as they won the Commander in Chief’s Trophy by besting the other two service academies.

The Mids now have a chance for their first 10-win season since the pandemic, and they’re in a bowl for the first time since 2019. Navy had its problems with good teams, losing to Notre Dame and Tulane, but the Mids handled almost everyone else on the schedule. They looked very good in shutting down Army, and they have the ability to pass much better than a Navy team usually can. In short, Oklahoma has a tough fight on its hands.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Friday, December 27 at Noon

Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Oklahoma vs. Navy In-Season Trends

Is Oklahoma actually capable of success outside of the Sooner State? Oklahoma lost four of its five SEC games outside of its state borders (four road games plus the annual meeting with Texas in Dallas), only beating an Auburn squad that went 2-6 in the league and missed a bowl game. The Sooners did have a tough road slate that included South Carolina and Mississippi, but there was also a loss to inconsistent LSU and Missouri in there. 

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Navy matched spread result to game result in 11 consecutive games. The only game where the Mids failed to cover but won was the season opener with Bucknell. Even that was close, as the Mids had the cover in hand before the Bison scored an otherwise meaningless touchdown, turning a 35-point win into a 28-point win with a 31.5-point spread.

Weather

It’s going to be 61 at kickoff and inching toward the upper 60s during the game. This will be ideal conditions for moving the ball.

The Difference-Makers

Containing Blake Horvath is key to stopping Navy. However, containing Horvath is nowhere near as simple as it usually is with a Naby quarterback. Horvath is the rare Navy QB who has more passing yards than rushing yards, not unimpressive when you consider he’s run for 1,099 yards. He doesn’t pass a lot, but when he does, it tends to be effective: he’s thrown 13 touchdowns against four interceptions.

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Michael Hawkins is now the main man in Norman after Jackson Arnold left for Auburn. Hawkins won the game against Auburn, but struggled quite a bit against Tennessee and Texas. To be fair, those are CFP-caliber teams and Hawkins is a true freshman.

The Pick

Hawkins hasn’t shown enough to trust him here against a motivated Navy squad. The Mids have a motivated squad and plenty of experience, and coach Brian Newberry grew up in Oklahoma.

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The Sooners just aren’t going to have the same level of motivation as the Mids will. That’s why the number has come down as far as it has. I’d have preferred it earlier, but I’ll still take it.