Oklahoma vs. Kansas Expert Pick and Prediction – January 13, 2024

OKLAHOMA VS. KANSAS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 13, 2024 — There are many reasons Oklahoma fans are looking forward to their move to the SEC. One big one among basketball fans: the end of their annual trips to Allen Fieldhouse.

Year after year, the Sooners keep coming north up I-35, and the result is always the same. Kansas has won 23 straight against Oklahoma in Lawrence and hasn’t lost to the Sooners at Allen Fieldhouse since 1993. Of course, the Oklahoma football team had the opposite situation, having won 18 straight against Kansas until the Jayhawks finally beat the Sooners this fall.

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But this isn’t the same, because Oklahoma basketball hasn’t been nearly as hopeless as Kansas football. Good Oklahoma teams, great Oklahoma teams, even a Final Four Oklahoma team have all come to Lawrence over the past 30 years. They’ve all had one thing in common: they left with a loss to the Jayhawks.

And there’s more good news for the crimson and cream: Kansas comes into this year’s matchup ticked off after taking a horrific loss at Central Florida. The Jayhawks looked like they had as close as it gets to a breather in the Big 12 when they went up 16 in the first half, but they somehow collapsed and lost to a team some people thought might go 0-for the Big 12. If there’s one thing Oklahoma didn’t want for its last trip to Lawrence, it was to face Kansas at maximum focus.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Saturday, January 13 at 2 p.m. EST

Where: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, Kan.

TV: ESPN+

Public Bets: 92% on Kansas

Public Money: 97% on Kansas

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of January 13th, 2024.

Oklahoma vs. Kansas In-Season Trends

Here’s another factor that’s made 23 losses in a row so frustrating for Oklahoma: the Sooners aren’t getting blown out. Out of Kansas’ past eight wins in the series, four of them have come by four points or less. That includes each of the past three: four points in 2023, two in 2022, four in 2021.

Usually, 70 points is a ceiling for the Sooners in this matchup. They broke through that one last year, but seven of the past nine meetings have seen Oklahoma score 70 or less against Kansas. If you can get the team total above that number, taking an under makes a lot of sense.

The Difference-Makers

Five turnovers from Kevin McCullar Jr. isn’t going to cut it for the Jayhawks. Kansas blew the game at UCF because it couldn’t hold onto it, giving it away 18 times against the Knights’ zone. Oklahoma is middling in terms of steals, but the Sooners convert the ones they do get into points.

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Javian McCollum shot well against TCU, but the Sooners need more from the rest of their scorers. Oklahoma shot 2-for-16 from deep outside of McCollum, and that’s not going to work against Kansas.

The Pick

The Jayhawks might be coming in ticked off, but this number looks like it’s a little too high. Oklahoma tends to play Kansas tight these days, even when it doesn’t win the game. The Sooners aren’t in a great mood either, which should make for a tight battle in the last meeting between the two long-time rivals in Lawrence.

This is the kind of game I expect to turn into a rock fight, which is par for the course for these squads. Kansas should extend the streak, but Oklahoma won’t go down without a fight.