Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Expert Pick and Prediction – September 28, 2024

OKLAHOMA STATE VS. KANSAS STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – September 28, 2024 — Which team is the real Kansas State? Is it the team that ran through Arizona like a hot knife through butter in Manhattan two weeks ago? Or is it the one that barely showed up against BYU and got trucked in a 38-9 blowout?

Based on the stats, the Wildcats are probably closer to the first one. Kansas State actually outgained BYU with ease and held the Cougars in check on defense. But the Wildcats broke their own backs with one of the worst six minute stretches of clock that you’ll ever see. From the 2:10 mark of the second quarter, Kansas State allowed a scoop and score, tossed an interception to set BYU up inside the 30, tossed another interception to set BYU up inside the 30 and allowed a punt return touchdown.

Related: NC State vs. Clemson: Pick and Prediction

And that is how you go from a 6-3 lead to a 31-6 deficit in a matter of minutes. The Wildcats never had a chance after that, but odds are high that that was probably a one-time thing. Oklahoma State was in the opposite situation in its game, as the Cowboys tried to come back in the fourth quarter before running out of time.

Based off the numbers, the Cowboys shouldn’t have been close with Utah. Desperation brought Oklahoma State back into the game after the Utes straight up dominated. But Ollie Gordon was ineffective and Alan Bowman didn’t do much until the game was on the line. Falling behind against Kansas State likely puts Mike Gundy’s team out of the race in the Big 12.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, September 28 at Noon EST

Where: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kan.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of September 28th, 2024.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State In-Season Trends

This has been a rivalry where the home team dominates. Oklahoma State is just 2-4 in Manhattan (and 5-1 in Stillwater) over the past 12 years in this series. Things got really bad last time, as the Wildcats buried the Cowboys by a 48-0 count.

Related: Alabama vs. Georgia Pick and Prediction

And that’s been the way this has gone when the teams have come to the plains of Kansas. Oklahoma State has pulled out two close ones, but the Wildcats’ four wins at home have all come by at least two touchdowns. Based on the way the history has gone, if the game is close, Oklahoma State is a good live bet opportunity.

Weather

Talk about two different days. The day will start at 55 degrees in Manhattan before warming up to 80 at kickoff. There won’t be any part of the fall in Manhattan during game time.

The Difference-Makers

So far, Ollie Gordon just isn’t going anywhere with the football. He didn’t have a good game against Utah and he’s been held to 3.5 yards per carry this season. The Cowboys were a much stronger team last year when he was churning out yardage, and they will really struggle if he gets stopped again.

Related: Why Matt Rhule Passed Deion Sanders

D.J. Giddens ran the ball well last week and Oklahoma State had no answers for Utah’s ground game. If the Wildcats can hang on to the football and avoid the mistakes that doomed them last week, they should bounce back here.

The Pick

It’s strange that Kansas State feels safer given how poorly the Wildcats played in that stretch, but the final score was not indicative of the whole performance. Neither was it the case in Oklahoma State’s game, but for the wrong reason. While the Wildcats were better than their score suggested, the Cowboys were substantially worse.

And with the line suppressed from K-State’s beatdown, this is a prime spot to back the hosts.