OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS. HOUSTON ROCKETS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — March 3, 2025

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS. HOUSTON ROCKETS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — March 3, 2025 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from today’s slate features the Oklahoma City Thunder (49-12 SU, 37-23-1 ATS) hosting the Houston Rockets (37-23 SU, 32-28 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Monday, March 3, 2025 @ 8:00 PM ET

Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

TV: NBA TV, FDSOK, and SCHN

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets — Preview & Betting Trends

Thunder Look  To Extend Win Streak To Four Games

Following a 131-128 overtime loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Feb. 24, the Thunder have posted wins in each of their last three games, including a 146-132 win against the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday night.

OKC’s offense was on full display, placing six players in double figures, including four of the team’s starters. Jalen Williams scored 41 points, grabbed six rebounds, and dolled out seven assists.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 31 points, eight assists, and four rebounds, while Carson Wallace finished with 19 points and four assists. The Thunder trailed 77-72 at the break before outscoring San Antonio by a 74-55 margin in the second half.  This includes a game-changing third quarter in which they posted a 36-23 scoring edge.

Rockets Hope To Regroup From Loss Against Sacramento

On the other side of this matchup, the Rockets’ two-game winning streak ended with a 113-103 setback against the Sacramento Kings on Saturday night. Houston’s big man, Alperen Sengun, torched the Kings’ defense with 30 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists.

Jalen Green scored 24 points, and Tari Eason contributed 14 points and four rebounds off the bench.

Houston trailed 84-82 early in the final frame. Unfortunately, the Kings went on a 13-3 burst, extending their advantage to 12 points (97-85) with 10 minutes left to play.

The Rockets were held to 43.6 percent shooting and were outscored by a 58-44 margin in the paint. Now that we have set the stage for this Western Conference showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

Thunder vs. Rockets Spread Analysis

Thanks to their three-game winning streak, the Thunder enter this contest as a 10.5-point favorite (per OddsShark.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Thunder have covered the spread five times in their last six matchups against Houston.
• OKC is 7-2 ATS in their previous nine outings against Southwest Division opponents.
• Meanwhile, the Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 outings.
• In its last nine matchups against OKC, Houston is 3-6 against the spread.

Prediction: Thunder (-10.5)

Thunder vs. Rockets Over/Under Prediction

The projected scoring total for this matchup is 227 points (via OddsShark.com). Let’s see why going with the “over” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone OVER six times in the Thunder’s last six games
• The OVER total is 11-2 in Oklahoma City’s previous 13 matchups against  Western Conference opponents.
• The OVER total has prevailed in each of the Rockets’ last five contests.
• These two teams average 232 points per contest, five points higher than the game’s over/under total.

Prediction: OVER 227 points

Thunder vs. Rockets Player Prop Bet

On the heels of his 41-point explosion against San Antonio, Jalen Williams is the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 21.5 points and -125 odds of finishing with less than 21.5 points (via Bet365.com).

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the season, Williams is averaging 21.3 points per game.
• In three regular-season matchups between these teams, he has averaged 18.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per outing on 42.3 percent shooting from the field.
• Williams has suited up in 26 home games this season. In those contests, he averages 20.6 points per outing.
• Across his last five outings, Williams has put up 25.6 points per game, exceeding the points total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Jalen Williams OVER 21.5 points