OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 17, 2024

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 17, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from today’s slate features the Oklahoma City Thunder (11-2 SU, 9-3-1 ATS) hosting the Dallas Mavericks (6-7 SU, 5-7-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, November 17, 2024 @ 7:00 PM ET

Where: Paycom  Center, Oklahoma City Thunder

TV: KFAA and FDSOK

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks — Postseason Stats & Betting Trends

These teams met in the conference semifinal round of last year’s playoffs. The Mavericks won the series in six games and advanced to their first NBA Finals appearance since 2011. The Thunder — who finished with the best record in the Western Conference last season — have posted 11 wins in their first 13 games this season. This includes a 99-83 win against the Phoenix Suns on Friday night. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led a quartet of starters who scored in double figures in that contest. He finished with 28 points, six rebounds, and four assists.

Lugentz Dort added 15 points and nine rebounds, while Jalen Williams and Isaiah Joe contributed 14 and 11 points, respectively. OKC raced out to a 15-point advantage after the first quarter. While the Suns did trim the deficit to nine points in the second quarter, they would get no closer the rest of the way. Despite shooting just 39.6 percent overall and 25 percent from beyond the arc, the Thunder cruised to their fourth victory in five tries.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks have dropped four of their previous five contests following a 5-3 start. Fortunately, the team recently snapped a four-game losing skid with a 110-93 win over the San Antonio Spurs last night. Kyrie Irving turned in a solid performance, finishing with 22 points (9-15 FG), six rebounds, six dimes, and two assists.

Luka Doncic added 16 points, six boards, and six assists. The Mavericks also got a 22-point, seven-rebound effort from Daniel Gafford off the bench. Dallas held a four-point advantage at the break before breaking the game open with a 38-18 scoring edge in the third quarter.

Will OKC close out its six-game homestand with a victory, or will Dallas notch its second win in as many nights? Now that we have set the stage for the Western Conference showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

Thunder vs. Mavericks Spread Analysis

Thanks in part to a three-game winning streak, the Thunder enter this contest as a five-point favorite (per OddsShark.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Thunder are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
• OKC is 13-4-1 ATS in its previous 18 November outings.
• However, in their last seven Sunday contests, the Thunder are just 2-5 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Mavericks have covered the spread just five times in their last 16 matchups against Dallas.
• Dallas is 2-3 against the spread in its past five road games.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder (-5)

Thunder vs. Mavericks Over/Under Prediction

The projected over/under total for this matchup is 230.5 points (via OddsShark.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone UNDER five times in the Thunder’s last seven games against Dallas.
• The UNDER total is 11-4 in OKC’s previous 15 matchups against Southwest Division opponents.
• The total has gone UNDER 13 times in the Mavericks’ last 18 contests.
• Additionally, the UNDER total has prevailed six times in Dallas’s previous nine outings against Western Conference foes.

Prediction: UNDER 230.5 points

Thunder vs. Mavericks Player Prop Bet

Fresh off his 28-point, six-rebound effort against the Suns, Gilgeous-Alexander is the key player to watch for the home team in this contest. He currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 31.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 31.5 points (via DraftKings.com).

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the season, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 27.9 points per game.
• In 17 regular-season matchups against Dallas, he has averaged 20.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per outing.
• SGA has suited up in eight home games this season. In those contests, he averages 28.6 points per contest.
• Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 31.5 points per game across his last four starts, exceeding the points total for this matchup only once during that stretch.

Prediction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander UNDER 31.5 points