Oilers vs. Panthers Pick and Prediction – June 24, 2024

OILERS VS. PANTHERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – June 24, 2024 — Could we be staring at the greatest comeback in Stanley Cup Finals history? It feels that way, given that the Oilers have dominated the past three games. Edmonton has outscored Florida 18-5 over the past three games, and it hasn’t given the Panthers any room to breathe since Game 3.

And yet, Florida’s still at home for Game 7. Home teams are 12-5 all-time in Game 7s in the Stanley Cup Finals. Florida’s also only lost one of the past three games at home. The Oilers very easily could have lost Game 5, and the Panthers certainly aren’t finished yet. Edmonton has not had to play with pressure since Game 3, and the Oilers might not react to it very well.

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That makes this game truly a coin flip. We’ve got two good teams fighting to try to lift the greatest prize in sports, over the course of one game. Florida has its system, Edmonton has its stars. One of the two will see this one out and end years of frustration. Whether the Oilers can stay loose will decide a lot of how this game goes.

Edmonton seemed to be a freed team when it came into Game 4 and just went out and played. Nobody expected anything from the Oil in that game, and they played their best hockey of the series. Now they have expectations and something to lose. The Oilers are so close to making the most of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and they might never get this close again. But that can work either way in a game like this. This game might be decided by who can handle the situation, as opposed to who is the better side.

The Odds

Puck Drop

When: Monday, June 24 at 8 p.m. EST

Where: Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, Fla.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: 50% on Florida

Public Money: 68% on Florida

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 24th, 2024

Oilers vs. Panthers In-Season Trends

Game 7s do tend to be low-scoring in a Stanley Cup Final. Only one of the 17 to get to this stage has seen more than six goals scored. And yet, the over has now cashed in four straight games. Edmonton cannot afford to play a grind-it-out game; that doesn’t work against Florida. The Panthers thrive when teams sit back and allow them to settle into the game. The Oilers have to push hard and never let up. That’s how they won the past three games; that’s the way to victory here.

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Road teams have succeeded in Game 7s lately, but overall, the trend of home games in the final game has been a good thing. Only five teams have gone away for Game 7 of a Cup final and come home with the Cup. Even if Florida has struggled as of late, it still holds an edge.

Players to Watch

Will Carter Verhaeghe do anything in this series? He did score the first goal of the series, but since then, he’s been missing. The Panthers needed all of their scorers to play like top scorers, and that hasn’t taken place as of yet. With Sam Reinhart also essentially absent and Florida’s depth not materializing lately, Verhaeghe has to get back to being himself.

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Stuart Skinner has to come up big again for the Oilers. He made a big difference in Games 4 and 6 and seemed to have the Panthers off their game. But in a Game 7 in a hostile arena, he’s got a much tougher test. With Connor McDavid playing out of his mind, Skinner doesn’t have to win the game for Edmonton. All he has to do is not lose it.

The Pick

Even though Game 7s tend to be tight, nervy affairs, Edmonton has put that to the side so well that it might not matter. The Oilers have all the momentum and believe that they’re supposed to win this.

I’ve backed Florida in every game this series, but I’m not feeling confident here now. I do think Florida is the better team, but the Panthers aren’t playing in their system. If they don’t play the way that got them here, they’ve got no chance to pull this off. I’ll bet the over as my main play, and if I have to make a pick on the result, I’ll take Edmonton.