Ohio State vs. Texas Expert Pick and Prediction – January 10, 2025

OHIO STATE VS. TEXAS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 10, 2025 — Is Ohio State the strongest team in the nation, or did the Buckeyes simply catch Oregon on the right day? To steal a line from Miss Kelsea Ballerini, two things can be true.

The Buckeyes aren’t that much better than Oregon consistently, especially considering they lost to the Ducks in the regular season. The reality is that as Jack Fredericks alluded to, if the Buckeyes and Ducks played 10 times, there’s probably a 5-5 split in which one team blows out the other once each.

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And that’s because Ohio State and Oregon probably were the two best teams in the country. Texas has spent time up there, but the Longhorns never really established themselves at the top of the heap. When Georgia was healthy, the Longhorns could not handle the Bulldogs, falling by 15 points in Austin. Texas’s big win of the year was Michigan, and while that’s more than Ohio State can say, it’s now well established that Ohio State has a mental block in that game.

No such block exists against Texas, and the Buckeyes showed that they have another gear that only great teams can reach. Texas, on the other hand, is frankly lucky to still be here. The Longhorns were not the better team against Arizona State — or even close to it, really — and they only survived because of a missed targeting call that got them into overtime. If Texas gives the same effort it did in Atlanta against Ohio State, the Longhorns are going to get boatraced the same way Tennessee and Oregon did.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Friday, January 10 at 7:30 p.m.

Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Ohio State vs. Texas In-Season Trends

When the Michigan mental block does not exist, Ohio State is formidable. The Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their past seven games, and the non-Michigan exception came against Northwestern, when the Buckeyes won by 24 while giving 28.

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For Texas, there’s good news and bad news. The good news is that the Longhorns are 13-0 when they break 20 points, which speaks to their offensive power. The bad news is that only one team has broken 20 points on Ohio State: Oregon, twice.

Weather

There’s snow in the forecast in the Metroplex. Not that anyone on TV will see it, because that means the roof will be closed.

The Difference-Makers

Stopping Jeremiah Smith is virtually impossible, and that proved to be Oregon’s downfall in the Rose Bowl. Smith is just one of the weapons Ohio State has available, and if he gets separation, good luck finding a way to slow down the Buckeyes.

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Quinn Ewers’ mistakes nearly caught up to Texas multiple times this season. He cannot afford to put the Longhorns in a hole with an early turnover: he has to ensure that Texas either puts points on the board or at least flips the field.

The Pick

The Buckeyes look like a runaway freight train. This Ohio State team is hitting on all cylinders right now, and they’re coming off a rout of what had been the best team in the nation.

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About the only thing that appears capable of stopping the Buckeyes right now is Michigan. If the Longhorns don’t come out wearing maize and blue, it’s probably going to be a long night for them.