Ohio State vs. Penn State Expert Pick and Prediction – November 2, 2024

OHIO STATE VS. PENN STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 2, 2024 — James Franklin just can’t catch a break in this matchup. This is the one team that Franklin hasn’t been able to solve in Happy Valley, and now he’s got to go in against Ohio State with his starting quarterback at 50% at best.

He could also turn to his backup, but that’s not really the choice you want to have to make against the team that’s given you more trouble than any other. The Buckeyes have won 11 of 12 overall in this matchup, and the Nittany Lions really wanted to be at full strength in this top-five battle.

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And as usual, this is a game that Ohio State cannot afford to lose. The Buckeyes have won seven straight in this matchup for a reason: because they’ve needed to win this game. Ohio State usually comes into this game undefeated or with one loss, but because the Buckeyes’ rival is Michigan, they always play Penn State first. And in the era of divisions, that meant that Ohio State knew it couldn’t afford to lose this game, or it would have no control over its own fate.

This year, that’s even more true because the Buckeyes lost to Oregon. Ohio State also has Indiana on the slate, and the Hoosiers lead the Big Ten at 5-0. If Ohio State loses to either Penn State or Indiana, there’s no chance that they can reach the Big Ten title game without some serious help. And if the Buckeyes don’t even make it to Indianapolis, Ryan Day might need a national championship to keep his job.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, November 2 at Noon

Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pa. 

TV: Fox

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Ohio State vs. Penn State In-Season Trends

The under has now cashed in three of four for Ohio State, with the exception being the one-point loss at Oregon. The Buckeyes are playing good defense, but the offense is a little inconsistent. The Buckeyes came up with a big win over Iowa, but they were lucky to escape against Nebraska last week. 

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Getting a win in Madison was big for Penn State, as it was the first time the Nittany Lions have really looked good in Big Ten play. They didn’t play all that well against USC, UCLA, Illinois or even Bowling Green. The recent showings for Penn State suggest a fragile team that’s not up to par, not one that’s on track to earn a first-round bye.

Weather

It’s going to be Big Ten weather. There’s no rain in the forecast, but temperatures are going to hit 57 degrees. This will be ideal fall weather for football.

The Difference-Makers

With 1,795 yards and 17 scores, along with only four interceptions, Will Howard has mostly done things well for Ohio State. Penn State is going to have to force Howard into a mistake or two to offset its own weakness on the offensive side of the ball.

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Whether it’s Drew Allar or Beau Pribula, Penn State needs better play out of its quarterback. The Nittany Lions don’t yet know who will be under center, but last year, Ohio State was able to smother the Penn State offense. This year, somebody has to step up and make something happen.

The Pick

There’s just not enough here to really trust Penn State. It’s hard not to take the Nittany Lions when you’re getting three points in Happy Valley. But there’s no guarantee as to who is going to play. Throw in Penn State’s struggles to move the ball, and there’s little reason to think that anything is going to change from past seasons.

Ohio State has owned this matchup. It doesn’t look like anything different occurs in this spot.