Ohio State vs. Oregon Expert Pick and Prediction – January 1, 2024

OHIO STATE VS. OREGON EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 1, 2024 — A year ago, Oregon found itself almost in the exact opposite position as where it sits now.

The Ducks faced a rematch with Washington in the Pac-12 title game, and the country expected that Oregon would prove that its earlier loss to the Huskies was a fluke. After all, it had taken everything Washington had to beat the Ducks in Seattle, and only by a field goal. Surely, on a neutral field, the Ducks would best the Huskies.

Instead, Washington again won by a field goal, getting nine points in the books in the process. A year later, now it’s Oregon who’s trying to replicate its earlier home victory against Ohio State. And just as the Huskies were, the Ducks are the underdog.

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Oregon beat Ohio State by a point in Eugene, the first of two losses this year for the Buckeyes. And everyone expects that on a neutral field, Ohio State will show that it’s the superior team and should have gotten the chance to play in the Big Ten title game. Of course, there’s the other side of this coin: Ohio State has perhaps the lowest floor in the playoff, given that the Buckeyes fell to Michigan at home.

The loss to the Wolverines looks better after Michigan and Illinois ended the SEC argument by putting Alabama and South Carolina in their places. But Ohio State still has to slow down Oregon again, and the Ducks’ floor seems a lot higher than the Buckeyes’ floor.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Wednesday, January 1 at 5 p.m.

Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Ohio State vs. Oregon In-Season Trends

Lack of consistency has been a problem for Ohio State as of late. The Buckeyes showed both high ceiling and high floor over their past two games, as they crushed Tennessee but couldn’t handle Michigan. While Ryan Day clearly has Michigan in his head, it’s fair to wonder if being favored might cost the Buckeyes their edge. The last time Ohio State lost to Michigan and made the playoff anyway, it was a decided underdog against Georgia.

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This time, that’s not the case, and it’s because of the Buckeye defense. Ohio State has held everyone under 20 points except one: Oregon. The Ducks have topped 30 against everyone but Wisconsin, which was their trap game. Oregon survived that one and has looked unstoppable on offense otherwise.

Weather

It’s going to be in the 70s in Pasadena, so this will be a perfect day for both teams.

The Difference-Makers

Jeremiah Smith leads a talented wide receiver corps for Ohio State that has the potential to take over a game. The Buckeyes punished Tennessee all night long in Columbus, and Smith’s two receiving touchdowns were a big part of their explosion.

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Dillon Gabriel has been outstanding all year for Oregon, and Ohio State couldn’t stop the Ducks’ attack last time out. If he gets in a rhythm again, the game favors Oregon.

The Pick

Oregon is getting disrespected here. It seems to be just like last season with Washington, where the Ducks are playing the role of disrespected champion.

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You simply shouldn’t be getting points in a game with the only undefeated team in the nation, not on a neutral field. There’s also the fact that the total is ticking up, not down. If it were ticking down, I could understand betting Ohio State, as a defensive game favors the Buckeyes. But a wide open game favors the Ducks, and a high total means a more open game. I don’t think I’ll need the free field goal here.