Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Expert Pick and Prediction – January 20, 2025

OHIO STATE VS. NOTRE DAME EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 20, 2025 — And so we’ve arrived at the national championship game, with many expecting Ohio State to waltz its way to the title. Just like when they won their last national championship, the Buckeyes wouldn’t have gotten in under the old rules, but they hit their stride following their loss to Michigan and have looked like the nation’s best team since then.

Notre Dame appears to have mostly taken advantage of a favorable draw. The bottom half of the bracket was always seen as the weaker one, as the Irish got to face a weakened Georgia after getting past Indiana. Notre Dame was a little lucky in surviving Penn State, but the Irish are here and at least have a chance to win the crown.

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But a psychologically free Ohio State has been an unbelievably dangerous squad. The Buckeyes have weapons all over the field and can break open a game in minutes, and the Irish just don’t have the ability to keep up if the Buckeyes are clicking. Notre Dame has a solid defense, but Ohio State has been otherworldly at moving the football.

Given Ohio State’s strong run defense, it’s going to take a huge performance from the Irish ground game to keep the Buckeyes from putting up too many points to match. If Notre Dame is going to win, it has to keep the Ohio State offense on the sidelines.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Monday, January 20 at 7:30 p.m.

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame In-Season Trends

The Buckeyes have been straight money for the entire playoffs, but the Irish have been the star of Vegas ever since the loss to Northern Illinois. Notre Dame is a remarkable 13-2 ATS, and as we’ve noted before here when talking about the Irish, Notre Dame is 13-0 ATS when it’s facing a team who isn’t part of the MAC.

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For games involving Ohio State, the key is 20. Only one team all season has managed to reach that number against the Buckeyes. Only one team this season has kept the Buckeyes from getting there themselves. No prizes for guessing that the two teams in question were Oregon and Michigan, the two teams Ohio State lost against. As long as Ohio State can hit that number, it’s likely going to win the game.

Weather

With temperatures falling to 18 degrees tonight, both teams would feel right at home for January action. However, in Atlanta, that means they’re closing the roof.

The Difference-Makers

Will Howard found himself cut off from Jeremiah Smith last time, so he spread the football around against Texas. He needs to do the same thing here. Notre Dame’s defense is good enough to force Howard into mistakes, but the Buckeyes have the advantage on the other side of the ball. If Howard limits the mistakes, this is Ohio State’s game to lose.

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Riley Leonard is in a similar spot. He has proven far less accurate with the football than Howard has, and he’s facing a better defense than Howard is. He’s proven incredibly effective when his legs are needed, but Ohio State is likely to force him to win with his arm.

The Pick

Ohio State looks to be the most dominant team in the nation. The Buckeyes have played like it ever since the Michigan game, and really, other than that moment, they’ve been the best team in the country. Even when they lost to Oregon, that was a toss-up that the Ducks only survived by catching the Buckeyes off-guard late in the game.

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Notre Dame appears to be here because it’s been gifted a glide path to the title game. The Fighting Irish have a gaudy record, but they haven’t seen a team anywhere near as talented as Ohio State. If the Buckeyes get up early, this is likely to get out of hand.