Nuggets vs. Suns Game 4 Preview and Picks – May 7, 2023

NUGGETS VS SUNS GAME 4 PREVIEW AND PICKS – MAY 7, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoffs coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

Today’s matchup features the top-seeded Denver Nuggets taking on the No. 4 seed Phoenix Suns. Let’s see which team has the edge and why heading into a must-win Game 4 for the home team.

The Odds

Tipoff 

When: Saturday, May 7, 2023 at 8:00 PM ET

Where: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

TV: TNT

Public Bets: Phoenix, 51%

Public Money: Nuggets, 78%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 7, 2023

How We Got Here

The Denver Nuggets finished the regular season with the best record in the western conference. But because they have not had a ton of playoff success, it was easy to overlook their potential as a championship contender.

However, they dispatched the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games. Sure, the top seed should beat the No. 8 seed. At the same token, they took care of business against an inferior opponent and they deserve credit for doing so. 

Meanwhile, the Suns have been on the title odds radar ever since they acquired Kevin Durant in a midseason trade. Although Durant only played eight regular-season games with his new team, the Suns finished with the fourth-best record in the conference. 

In their first-round matchup against the LA Clippers, the Suns defeated the Clippers in five games after dropping the season opener. But a second-round matchup against a Nuggets team that is seeking its second conference finals appearance in four seasons will be a true test. 

When these teams squared off in the playoffs two years ago, the Suns swept the short-handed Nuggets who were without Jamal Murray due to an ACL injury. But with their point guard back and playing better than ever, along with Nikola Jokic doing his thing, the Nuggets held serve on their home court, jumping out a to 2-0 lead. 

Not only were the Suns facing an 0-2 deficit going into Game 3, but they also were dealt another blow when Chris Paul went down with a groin injury and will probably be out of the team’s rotation for the foreseeable future. 

Despite this recent development, the Suns rose to the occasion in Game 3. Jokic (30 points, 17 rebounds, and 17 assists) and Murray (32 points, six rebounds, and five assists) did their best to try to push the Suns into a deeper hole.

But that would not come to fruition thanks to Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. KD scored 39 points to go along with nine boards and eight assists. If that wasn’t bad enough, Booker scored a game-high 47 points on a ridiculous 20-for-25 from the field (80 percent) and 5-for-8 from distance. Booker also tallied six rebounds, nine assists, and three steals, helping the Suns edge the Nuggets 121-114.

Despite the brilliant performances from Booker and Durant, the Suns know they still have their work cut out for them. Not only do they need to win Game 4, but they also need to get a win in Denver in order to win the series. 

Here are my betting picks for this contest, including my confidence meter for each pick on a scale of one to five stars. 

Over/Under

The O/U opened at 227 points. That line has moved to 227.5, with the UNDER attracting 77 percent of the cash and 53 percent of the tickets (subject to change)

The OVER is 4-0-1 for Denver in its last five road games and 4-0-1 against teams with a winning home record. The Suns were 28-13 during the regular season.

The OVER holds a 3-0-1 mark for Denver after allowing 100 or more points in its previous outing and when their opponent has scored 100 or more points in its previous outing. The Suns produced 121 points in Game 3. 

The points total has gone OVER for Denver in six of its last nine games against opponents with a home winning percentage of .600 or better. The Suns were 28-13 at home – a winning percentage of .683.

The OVER is 4-0-1 for Phoenix in the team’s last five games that were played on a Sunday, 5-0-1 in the Suns last six home games. 

The points total has gone OVER for the Suns in seven of their last 10 games in which they scored 100 or more points. The Suns scored 121 points in Game 3. 

The OVER is 6-2-1 in Phoenix’s last nine games in which they gave up 100 or more points in their previous outing. Denver scored 114 points in Game 3.

In Phoenix’s last 27 games, the Over is 18-7-2 overall. 

Prediction: Over 227.5 points ★★★

The Spread

The Suns opened as a consensus four-point favorite. The line has dropped a bit to (-2.5).

Phoenix has a 43-38 record against the spread this season and a 7-6 record ATS with a 4.5+ spread. 

In the Suns’ last 14 games, they are 10-4 ATS. 

Prediction: Suns (-2.5)

Player Prop Bet

My player to watch in Game 4 is Devin Booker. He currently has -120 odds of scoring over 31.5 points and -110 odds of scoring less than the projected total. 

Booker set a career-high in points during the reason. He averaged 27.8 points per outing. 

In the five-game set against the LA Clippers, he averaged 37.2 points per contest on slash lines of .602/.467/.857.

And in this series so far, Booker is averaging 36.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 7.7 assists. He is shooting 60.3 percent from the field, 52.9 percent from deep, and 88 percent from the charity stripe. 

Prediction: Devin Booker Over 31.5 points ★★★★

Read more playoff coverage here!