Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M Expert Pick and Prediction – August 31, 2024

NOTRE DAME VS. TEXAS A&M EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – August 31, 2024 — Welcome to the Riley Leonard Bowl. A year ago, Leonard and Mike Elko were a quarterback-coach combination looking to make Duke into a top program in the ACC, and they had the Blue Devils ascending until Leonard went down with injury — against Notre Dame, of all teams.

Without Leonard, the Blue Devils’ ACC hopes quickly sank out of sight. Duke did rally to win the Birmingham Bowl and go 8-5, but that was the end of the road for both of them. Elko opted to go back to College Station when the Aggies fired Jimbo Fisher, and Leonard left for South Bend without his coach around.

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So of course, they’re now facing each other. And that begs the question as to which one actually has the advantage. Elko knows Leonard and his tendencies better than almost any defensive mind alive, but Leonard faced Elko’s defense every day in practice. Notre Dame brings 10 other guys and a different offensive scheme to the table, which Elko hasn’t gone up against regularly.

There’s also the fact that Leonard is plugging his skills into Notre Dame’s existing system, while Elko is installing his own system around his players. Add it up, and it seems that the quarterback has the edge in this reunion.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, August 31 at 7:30 p.m. EST

Where: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas

TV: ABC

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 30th, 2024.

Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M In-Season Trends

Obviously, Marcus Freeman doesn’t care about the spread, but the Fighting Irish certainly have excelled at covering the number while he’s been in South Bend. In his past 16 games as a ranked team, the Irish have gone 11-4-1 ATS, including covering their past two season openers.

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The Aggies haven’t been able to count on a lot for the past few years, but they did always start their season with a win under Jimbo Fisher. The Aggies have won six consecutive season openers and 11 straight home openers. In those games, they’re 7-4 ATS.

Weather

This isn’t the weather anyone was hoping for. 82 degrees isn’t terrible, but a thunderstorm will roll into College Station right around kickoff. Wind isn’t an issue, but a 65% chance of rain isn’t great.

The Difference-Makers

Leonard was outstanding when he was at Duke and really gave that team an extra gear. If he’s fully recovered, he’ll make a big difference for the Irish’s efforts.

Related: Penn State vs. West Virginia Pick and Prediction

Connor Weigman took care of the ball last season before he went out for the year in a win over Auburn. The Aggies need to have him stabilize things if they’re going to stay in this game.

The Pick

Texas A&M isn’t going to be a quick fix. Elko is a good coach and the Aggies should be competitive through the year, but Notre Dame is the more polished team and understands its system. The Aggies really shouldn’t be laying points against this Irish squad. Notre Dame should win this game outright; getting three points seems like a gift.