North Texas vs. Florida Atlantic Expert Pick and Prediction – February 27, 2025

NORTH TEXAS VS. FLORIDA ATLANTIC EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 27, 2025 — Can the Mean Green play their way onto the bubble? They’re certainly acting like they can, as they’ve now won 10 of their past 12 games.

But because of their league, so much has to go right for them to make it to the Big Dance. Realistically, they’ve got to at least make a run to the semifinals of the American Athletic Conference tournament and avoid picking up a bad loss in the process.

Related: The Return of Rich Rodriguez

This is one of the few spots in the American that would count as a good win. Florida Atlantic is no longer the monster that Dusty May got to the Final Four two years ago, but the Owls are still a solid basketball team. More important for North Texas, they have to win here to stay in the 2/3 line for the American tournament.

Finishing second or third means that North Texas wouldn’t have to beat Memphis until the American tournament final, at which point they’d be playing for the automatic bid anyway. FAU has the opposite worry: the Owls would rather not face the Tigers in the conference tournament final. The only way Florida Atlantic is getting in is with the automatic bid, which means they’d have to go through Memphis at some point. Given that the Tigers just pounded the Owls by 19 at home, FAU’s best hope is that the Tigers — safely in the field — opt to rest players in the semifinals.

Once a team gets to the final, it decides it might as well try to win the title. So if FAU’s going to go, it’s going to need to stay on the 4/5 line and try its best to pick Memphis off in the semifinals. And to stay there, the Owls have to beat North Texas at home.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Thursday, February 27 at 7 p.m.

Where: Eleanor Baldwin Arena, Boca Raton, Fla.

TV: ESPN2

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

North Texas vs. Florida Atlantic In-Season Trends

Florida Atlantic has been able to do what almost nobody else can against North Texas: force the Mean Green to speed things up. The teams have played over in five of the past six meetings, quite the rarity for one of the slowest teams in college basketball.

Related: March Madness Predictions

Yet it didn’t work out for the Owls the last time the teams met. North Texas finally broke through after dropping five straight to FAU, winning a 77-64 decision in Denton. But that was the Dusty May effect: May went 7-2 against the Mean Green while in Boca Raton. He’s now in Ann Arbor leading Michigan toward a Big Ten title. And while John Jakus has done a decent job in year one, he’s not at Dusty May’s level yet.

The Difference-Makers

Kaleb Glenn was awesome off the bench for FAU last time, scoring 20 points as the sixth man. The starters did next to nothing. The Owls have to get more out of the starting five to give Glenn some help against this defense.

Related: Problems With College Sports Travel

Brenen Lorient — a former Owl — also came off the bench and scored 17 points for North Texas in the win. The difference was, the Mean Green played defense and the starters added their own contributions. Having Lorient score off the bench gives North Texas an advantage that FAU’s defense hasn’t solved.

The Pick

The pressure is on North Texas. This is the only chance the Mean Green have to improve the profile before the American tournament, and it still won’t really provide what they need. But at least there’s hope if they run the table and make a run in Fort Worth, a mere 37 miles from the North Texas campus.

Florida Atlantic is likely in the second tier in the American. It’s good enough to make this a battle to the end, but the Mean Green should have the slight edge.