North Carolina vs. Minnesota Expert Pick and Prediction – August 29, 2024

NORTH CAROLINA VS. MINNESOTA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – August 29, 2024 — The boat has hit some choppy waters in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. P.J. Fleck’s Minnesota squad seemed to be on an upward trajectory after back-to-back nine-win seasons, but the Golden Gophers crashed last year in Chapel Hill. Instead of another 4-0 start to the year, Minnesota ended up with an 18-point loss to the Tar Heels, and things started to spiral from there.

The Gophers ended up just 5-7, going 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS over the final 10 games of the year. Minnesota did sneak into (and win) a bowl thanks to APR scores, but Fleck’s star has faded a bit in year eight. The pressure is on for the Gophers, especially with life getting tougher in the Big Ten Plus Eight.

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Mack Brown doesn’t have to worry about what his bosses think. He’s now the winningest active FBS coach after Nick Saban retired, and it’s a mystery how much longer he wants to do this. Tuesday marked his 73rd birthday, and there’s speculation that this might be his final season in Chapel Hill.

North Carolina has the start if the season figured out beautifully. It’s what happens in November that prevents the Tar Heels from becoming elite. The Heels started last year 6-0 before falling to Virginia, and they were 9-1 the year before that. The Heels also tend to play pretty well. Outside of their annual loss to Georgia Tech (the Heels have dropped three in a row to the Yellow Jackets), the only teams to beat Carolina outside of Chapel Hill the past two seasons are Clemson and NC State. Even though this game’s in Minneapolis, it will be anything but easy for the Gophers.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday, August 29 at 8 p.m. EST

Where: Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

TV: FS1

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 25th, 2024.

North Carolina vs. Minnesota In-Season Trends

As stated above, the Heels tend to do the job in the early months, at least when it comes to winning the game. When they’re trying to cover a spread, they’re more inconsistent. Carolina excelled at covering last year in the early going, going 5-1 ATS in the year’s first half. 2022 wasn’t as successful; the Heels started 5-1 SU but went just 2-4 ATS. Regardless of time of year, Carolina tends to dominate outside of the ACC. The Heels are 11-2 in their past 13 non-conference games, and both losses were to ACC-lite member Notre Dame.

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Last year was pretty rotten for the Gophers in terms of covering the spread. Minnesota went just 2-5 ATS in Minneapolis last season, covering only against Louisiana and Michigan State. The Gophers also didn’t provide much in the way of offense at home: Minnesota averaged just 21.4 points per game at home, a stat skewed by the two covers. Outside of those games, the number drops to a very pedestrian 17.6.

Weather

The teams might just miss the worst of the weather. Minnesota is about to get hit by a heat wave and strong storms following that, which means about a half-inch of rain on Thursday. However, the storm is projected to pass Minneapolis by kickoff, leaving pleasant temperatures in the mid 60s.

The Difference-Makers

When you run for more yards than you pass and you’re not a triple-option team, something probably went wrong. Minnesota’s passing attack was a wreck last season, as the Gophers only topped 200 passing yards once (Purdue). Fleck brought in Max Brosmer from New Hampshire, and the senior was a finalist for the Walter Payton Award as the top player in FCS.

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North Carolina has to replace Drake Maye and chose to do that with Max Johnson, a former Texas A&M quarterback. The Heels have rarely had trouble moving the ball in Brown’s second stint, usually putting up at least 30 points per game.

The Pick

Minnesota has improved, and this seems to be a year where Fleck rows the boat back on course. But Carolina just doesn’t lose in the first part of the season unless it’s playing Notre Dame. The Heels are likely to play as if this is Brown’s final season, and they want to make this one to remember for him.

This game looks likely to come down to the wire, and that means I want the free points on my side. This might be a game to throw into a teaser to get Carolina at +7.5, especially if there’s something else you really like. As it is, I’m backing the Heels.