North Carolina vs. Florida State Expert Pick and Prediction – February 24, 2025

NORTH CAROLINA VS. FLORIDA STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 24, 2025 — Does North Carolina still have a shot at getting into the tournament? The Tar Heels’ chances aren’t great, because they haven’t really stacked any good wins. They don’t have many bad losses, although losses to Pittsburgh, Kansas and Stanford have not aged well.

But because those are the worst things on the profile, they still have a shot. They really could use a good win somewhere (all they’ve got is UCLA, admittedly a good win but not enough on its own), but the ACC is really short on opportunities this season.

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Usually, a trip to Florida State has been an opportunity for a good win. Not this year. The Seminoles aren’t quite a landmine, but a loss to them would be damaging. And that’s Carolina’s big issue right now: its next three games can do nothing to help its profile. The Heels finish the year with their annual meeting with Duke, but that’s the only game out of the final four that would offer any help at all. The remaining three are simply “better not lose”: Quad 2 away games at Florida State and Virginia Tech and a Quad 4 landmine at home against last-place Miami.

Florida State, of course, is playing with nothing to lose. The Seminoles aren’t making the tournament, but they would like to send Leonard Hamilton out with a solid finish to his career. The 76-year-old Hamilton will retire at the end of the season, and this marks his penultimate game in Tallahassee. A win here would set him up to end his career with a flourish.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Monday, February 24 at 7 p.m.

Where: Donald Tucker Center, Tallahassee, Fla. 

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

North Carolina vs. Florida State In-Season Trends

A sign of Florida State’s decline has been the Seminoles’ fall off against North Carolina. The Tar Heels have won six of seven, including two straight wins in Tallahassee. Once, FSU was competitive with Carolina when playing at home, but the Seminoles haven’t managed to beat the Tar Heels since 2021.

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The defense really hasn’t done well for Carolina as of late. The over is 5-1 in the Heels’ past six games, and it’s not just because of Carolina’s offense. Carolina allowed 82 to Syracuse, 85 to Clemson and 87 to Duke. Florida State is coming off an 89-81 loss to Louisville, but that’s the only time the Seminoles have played over in their past five games.

The Difference-Makers

RJ Davis rediscovering his shot would make a big difference to the Heels. Carolina used to get close to 40% shooting from behind the arc out of Davis, but these days, he’s down to 30%. When he’s hitting his shots, the Heels are tough to beat, but he’s not had a good season at all. Carolina has survived his performances against lesser teams, but it hasn’t done well against good opposition.

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Florida State is really weak on 3-pointers. The Seminoles need to get Jamir Watkins to shoot often and do it inside the arc. Against Louisville, he shot a solid 6-for-11 on 2-point baskets. He went 1-for-6 from behind the arc, and that is not atypical for a team that ranks 17th in the ACC in 3-point shooting. The Seminoles have to get the ball in the paint.

The Pick

If Florida State were playing well at home, it would make sense to back the Seminoles here. But FSU really didn’t show up against Clemson. The Tigers won that game by 26 and the Seminoles scored just 46 points.

This Florida State team is nowhere near the bubble for a reason. They can cause problems for opponents, but they don’t do it anywhere near often enough. And the inconsistency should be their downfall here.