Jack's Pick
The Bills like to run Josh Allen in big games against good opponents. Buffalo won't endanger their star quarterback when the game is meaningless, but in a big situation it's nearly a sure thing that Allen is going to make plays with his legs.
The Bengals are 14th in DVOA for rushing, but most of that is focused on how well a defense can stop running backs. A unique talent like Allen's, who can throw the ball 50 yards or scramble for 20, poses huge problems for defenses.
The Bengals struggle contain mobile quarterbacks. They allowed 33 rushing yards on 5 attempts agains the Browns and Deshaun Watson. Marcus Mariota and the Falcons ran for 31 yards on 6 attempts. Lamar Jackson tagged Cincy for 58 yards on 12 attempts in their game in October.
The best plays here are Josh Allen rushing attempts and rushing yards props. In 8 games against playoff teams this season, Allen averages 9.5 rushing attempts per game and 59 yards total rushing. This isn't just a spot where you can take the over on both of these props. You can play with some escalators as well.
Allen's rushing attempts prop is at 8.5. The over at 8,5 attempts is 12-5 in the Bills last 17 games against playoff teams.
I also like the over on Allen's rushing yards. He's currently at 45.5 yards, but you could escalate it and get a little more value. DraftKings will offer Allen 50+ yards at +120. I don't know if he'll run for 75 yards, but 50 seems doable. I like this play.
