NFL Week 15: Jack’s Best Bets for the 4:00 Games

The Pick

This line opened at +5 for the Titans and has been moving closer to Tennessee all week, as 80% of the public money has been on the Titans. The professionals like the Titans here and with good reason. Mike Vrabel is 15-10 ATS as a road underdog and 12-6 when getting more than three points. Vrabel is very similar to Mike Tomlin as a dog. The professionals know this and responded accordingly, playing this line down to +2.5.

If you're late on this game, you may want to consider the Chargers at -2.5.

The Titans' major problems during the later half of the season has been the injuries. Defensive lineman, Denico Autry, has been ruled out for this game. This is the third game that Autry has missed and the defensive line has struggled to capture their early season dominance without him. Per PFF, Autry grades out as a 73.6 in rushing defense and a 76.1 in pass rush. The Titans still have David Long and Caleb Farley, who can get after Justin Herbert, but Autry is going to be missed again.

The Titans are also without Treylon Burks, who is in concussion protocol. Burks has been the Titans most explosive receiver in an offense that has sorely missed A.J. Brown. PFF ranks Treylon Burks as the 68th most effective receiver in the NFL. The Titans need Burks on the field and will struggle to get the passing game going without him.

Tennessee is also missing five more starters due to injury, including Kristian Fulton (CB), Tre Avery (CB), and Amani Hooker (S).

Can the Chargers Exploit the Injuries?

The Chargers will look to attack this Titans' weakened secondary with their explosive passing game.

Mike Williams will cause major issues for the Titans. He is back to full health and is Herbert's favorite target. The Chargers have not been an efficient passing team, ranking 22nd in DVOA for passing offense, but the scheme has looked much better with Williams back in the lineup. Expect the Titans secondary to give up some explosive plays.

The Chargers are going to have a difficult time stopping Derrick Henry and the Titans running game. Los Angeles ranks 25th in DVOA for rushing defense. They don't have a particularly powerful defensive line and, with Burks out, Vrabel will look to exploit that weakness and run the ball all game.

I would play the Titans at anything above +3, but with the injuries to the secondary, I'm going with the Chargers -2.5. The line moved way too much for my comfort and I don't see as much value in taking the Titans as dogs here.

The Pick

This could be a game where we need to take a hard look at some of the trends to determine if we should play the situation. Here are some trends for the Bengals:

• Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
• Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
• Bengals are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win.

Now, how about those Buccaneers?

• Buccaneers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Buccaneers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
• Buccaneers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• Buccaneers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points

What this tells us is that the Buccaneers have been consistently overvalued and the Bengals have been undervalued all year long. This game is no different, as the Bucs opened at 2 point underdogs against a 9-4 Bengals team that seems to be more dominant every week. The line jumped up to -3.5 and I would still recommend hammering the Bengals. The line is way too short for a Bucs team that can't cover a spread.

The Metrics

The Bucs' defense has fallen to 11th in DVOA for total defense and 12th in DVOA for passing defense. They have played the 8th toughest defensive strength of schedule, but the unit is not nearly as formidable as they were at the beginning of the season.

The Bengals should be able to exploit this defense with a monster passing game and an efficient rushing offense. Cincinnati is 7th in DVOA for passing offense, relying on explosive plays from Ja'Marr Chase to put up big points in important games. Their real strength is in the running game, though, where the Bengals rank 3rd in DVOA.

Joe Mixon is 12th in DYAR and 10th in EYds for the year. PFF ranks Mixon 27th in terms of total offense (76.7) and 2nd in terms of fumbling (90.6). The Bengals don't turn the ball over much and have been operating his surgical precision on the offensive side of the ball.

The Bucs won't be able to keep up with the offensive output. Continue to play the Bengals until they stop covering.