Jack's Pick
The Giants opened this line as +3.5 underdogs and the spread has since moved to +4.5.
This may have more to do with the Giants than the Commanders. New York failed to stay competitive last week against the Eagles and the general consensus among handicappers is that the team with all the luck has been coming up empty lately.
Speaking of luck, Action Network's luck rankings list the Giants as fourth behind Eagles, Vikings, and Cowboys. The luck rankings attempt to weigh a team's on-field performance and win probability against their actual wins. Sometimes the luck rankings express a team's ability to over perform due to talent (Eagles), while in other instances it captures a team's ability to win one score games (Vikings).
The Giants have continued to get lucky in their wins this year, so it's a good idea to fade them.
The Metrics
The advanced analytics bear this out as well. The Commanders have fielded one of the top defensive units in the league this year.
Per Football Outsiders, Washington ranks 9th in total defensive DVOA. They rank rank 4th in DVOA for rushing defense and 14th in DVOA for passing defense. They have the 3rd lowest variance of their defense's efficiency, which means that the defense is predictably good every week.
The production for the run defense comes primarily from Washington's star safety, Kamren Curl. Per PFF, Curl grades out as the 14th most effective defender against the run (85.8). The Commanders also get help from edge rusher, Montez Sweat, who ranks 36th in run defense (81.3). PFF also respects the Washington secondary, which ranks 7th among all teams and grades out at a respectable 78.8.
The Giants will attempt to run their offense through Saquon Barkley, who has seen his usage diminish during the second half of the season. Barkley is currently 28th in DYAR, 29th in DVOA, and 30th in VOA. He is 6th in EYds, which tells you that when the Giants do use Barkley, he outperforms his expected yards.
Even though Taylor Heinecke has proven to be successful against the spread, the Commanders have struggled on offense all season. This would usually give me pause, but the Giants defense hasn't produced stops consistently enough for me to trust them. The Giants rank 29th in total defensive DVOA and 31st in DVOA for rushing defense.
The Commanders should be able to move the ball against a floundering Giants defense. I expect Kamren Curl and this Commanders defense to step up against Barkley and create enough pressure on Daniel Jones to create key stops.
I have this line set at Commanders -5.5 and so am happy to take them at -4.5.
