Jack's Pick
I don't usually like to play weatherman, but the smart play -- yes, maybe the only play -- is under at 43 total points. The trends we listed at the beginning of this article are so strongly in favor of the under that it would be criminal to look at a different play. Our favorite trend is when average wind speeds is over 10 MPH the under is 618-496-10 since 2003. That is a gigantic sample size that is hitting at 55%.
The weather will be a factor. Much of the snow may fall before the game, but the wind and the temperatures will all but ice the points total in this one.
 Running Down That Hill
Snowy conditions usually mean that the passing game stays at a minimum and the running backs are forced to take brutal hits in cold weather. Per Football Outsiders, the Bills have the 15th ranked DVOA for rushing offense. That is mostly due to Josh Allen's ability too use his legs. The Bills don't have many options at running back.
Allen could find himself frustrated in the run game, because the Dolphins have the 8th ranked DVOA for rushing defense. Christian Wilkins is a monster on the defensive line. The Dolphins rank 4th in adjusted line yards (3.92). If the Bills can't establish the run in bad weather, it could be difficult for them to score.
How about the Dolphins run game?
Miami ranks 17th in DVOA for rushing offense. We know they love to throw the ball, so the run game is often sacrificed for those scary receivers. This shouldn't be an issue for the Bills, who rank 3rd in DVOA for rushing defense and 3rd in adjusted line yards (3.67).
If you like defensive line play, this is your game. Don't ignore the weather as a major contributing factor. Take the under and be glad you did.
