Jack's Pick
The Colts have not won a game since Jeff Saturday's inaugural day as a head coach against the Raiders five weeks ago.
Since that win, the Colts have been outscored 95-52. They haven't covered the spread in two weeks. The offense has not scored 20 points in three games. It's hard to know if Saturday is good at his job yet, but the last two weeks have not looked favorably upon the rookie head coach.
The Vikings are another team that has been perplexing and frustrating handicappers all season. They are 10-3, but 6-6-1 ATS. They boast a -1 point differential, which is worrisome for a team with 10 wins. Justin Jefferson and the offense seem to be cruising, which has been part of their success.
Fade the Vikes?
The Vikings defense worries me. In their last three games, Minnesota's defense has given up 26 points to the Patriots, 22 points to the Jets, and 34 points to the Lions. Per Football Outsiders, the Vikings defense is 22nd in total DVOA for defense. They are much more efficient against the run, where they sit at 14th in DVOA for rushing defense. That could be useful against the Colts, who would prefer to run the ball. However, this is a middling defensive squad that relies heavily on the enormous production of Justin Jefferson in order to win games.
The Colts are much more efficient on defense, clocking in at 12th in total DVOA for total defense. However, Indianapolis has struggled defensively in their last three games and it's hard to say which team will show up on Saturday afternoon.
The Vikings are 6-1 at home, while the Colts are 2-4-1 on the road. Minnesota has covered in its last two games at home. Normally, I would suggest fading the Vikings, because they aren't as good as their record shows and can be overvalued in the market.
I don't love that play here. The Colts are bad and the defense has not shown that they can stop a receiver like Jefferson. I like the Vikings in a blowout.
For a little more salt with your pepper, take Justin Jefferson over 92.5 receiving yards. It's going to be a big day for Jefferson.
