NFL Week 14: Best Bets for the 4:00 Games

Nate's Best Bets

Smart Total and a Dumb Teaser

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+9, o/u 44

On paper, this is sort of a funky matchup. The Chiefs are elite offensively, ranking #1 overall in offensive DVOA per Football Outsiders. But this isn’t the easiest matchup against a Broncos defense that rates #7 in defensive DVOA, and has done their absolute damndest to try and keep this team in games only to watch Russell Wilson or Nathaniel Hackett fritter them away. 

Kansas City has some warts on defense that are masked by their outstanding offense, so if there was ever a moment where, maybe just maybe, the Broncos could get going, I suppose this could be it.

That being said, I am absolutely finished trying to predict when the Bronco offense will come alive. At this point it feels like standing next to a dormant volcano and wondering when the lava will start flowing. In short, we could be waiting forever to see this offense move the ball with any regularity. 

There is a strong case to be made that Denver has inflated defensive numbers simply because they haven’t played many good offenses. Seattle is the only real offense they faced outside of the Chargers (and the Chargers aren’t exactly setting the world on fire right now). 

Still, I just can’t ignore the silly trends for the Broncos. If you just bet under the total points in every Broncos game this season, you’d be 11-1 on the season.

I think there’s an argument to be made for the Broncos here as these divisional games late in the season often have some eyebrow-raising results, but I just can’t trust this team to score enough to keep this that close. 

The under is the safest play. If we lose here, we can console ourselves with all the other unders this Broncos team has gifted us this season. 

If you want to take a side here, I would suggest teasing this line down a little bit, particularly if youre book is at 8.5 points. There aren’t a ton of teaser options if you’re starting this late in the day, which is why I’ll break one of the golden rules of teasers. You should never, ever cross zero when you’re teasing a number, it’s just terrible value and doesn’t move you off many key numbers (3, 4, 6, 7, 10, etc.). That being said, I love the Seahawks, so we add them to the teaser because gambling is awesome. This is not a good teaser, and I’m not proud of it, but let’s get weird.