NFL Week 14: Best Bets for the 1:00 Games

Nates Hops In

I’ll throw in a bonus play here.

I agree with everything Jack says about the Eagles. They should roll the Giants who, like Icarus, flew too close to the sun and are now crashing back to earth. 

The angle I’ll be on here is the under.

I’ve watched enough of these NFC East divisional games to be able to spot an ugly game. These defenses aren’t wonderful, but both of these teams would prefer to run the ball to keep the clock moving. This should also eliminate those pesky quick scores which usually doom an under bet. 

The clock moves here and Philly plays at a snail’s pace.

Understatement

New York Jets at at Buffalo Bills (-10, o/u 43)

These are two elite units on the field with real opportunity to make serious damage in the playoffs. They also have two very different profiles. 

The Bills feature at once the most physically gifted and infuriating quarterback in Josh Allen. He can extend any play with his legs or chuck the rock sixty yards downfield. His favorite target, Stefon Diggs, is having the best year of his career. The defense is getting healthier every week and continues to perform well. This is a Super Bowl contending team. 

The Jets ride their lockdown secondary and respectable run defense to success in low-scoring fist fights. The loss of Breece Hall limited the Jets ability to ride the run game. Zach Wilson’s poor performance and sour attitude caused a QB shakeup and enabled the emergence of Mike White. Everyone has been making The White Lotus jokes as White continues to be a serviceable option. It may implode soon, but for now the Jets are utilizing a conservative game script to stay in the playoff hunt. 

The Jets defense is for real. They rank 4th in DVOA for pass defense. The Bills don’t run the ball and don’t really have a second explosive playmaker after Diggs. The Jets should be able to shut down Diggs enough to keep the points total low and I don’t expect the Jets to score more than 17. I love the under play at 43. I have this game at 41 for a total. That’s two points to play with.

Steel a Game

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2, o/u 36.5)

I was really high on Baltimore a few weeks ago, but I’m starting to think I may have jumped the gun. The defense is certainly improving, but now Lamar is hurt and this team is playing down to opponents way too much to make me comfortable betting on them. 

Tyler Huntley isn’t terrible, but he’s also not a MVP-caliber quarterback, which is what he's replacing here. 

Pittsburgh’s defense is legitimately nasty with T.J. Watt on the field. When he’s out there, this is a top-5 unit. 

I won’t fault anyone for taking the under here. We know what Pittsburgh’s offense is, and it isn’t scaring many teams. Add in the unknowns surrounding Huntley and his limited NFL appearances, and it's fair to wonder how this game is high-scoring.

Ultimately, I know what I’m getting with the Steelers and it’s a tough team that doesn’t make a ton of mistakes. I’ve already had doubts about the Ravens, but those are heightened without Lamar. I think Pittsburgh snags a tough divisional game here.

Get Me Out of Jacksonville

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, o/u 41)

I’m done with the Jaguars.

They got absolutely destroyed last week by the Lions, and looked horrible in the process. Additionally, T-Law suffered a foot/toe injury which has him listed as questionable.

This is not a game where the Jags can afford for Lawrence to be limited at all.

Ryan Tannehill, for a while, seemed like he was trying to establish residency on the injury list, but he’s finally without a designation for what feels like the first time since 2016. 

I’m not going to put a ton into the beatdown the Eagles put on the Titans. Tough matchup and the Eagles are good.

We’re looking at two teams who were mauled last week, but the caliber of team they played is vastly different.

The Titans are just the better team here and they are angling for another division title. I don’t see the Jags being much more than a speed bump toward that goal.