The Word
NFL WEEK 14 BEST BETS FOR MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL - The New England Patriots (6-6) travel to Glendale to square off against the Arizona Cardinals (4-8) on Monday Night Football. The Patriots look to increase their playoff odds, while the Cardinals attempt to prove to everyone that they don't stink.
Do the Belichick trends coming off a loss continue? Can Arizona cover on a Monday Night? How do we feel about the point totals? All these questions and more are answered below by your favorite analysts and sickos.
Let's look at some trends, shall we?
- Patriots are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home
- Patriots are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 Monday games.
- UNDER is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games following a bye week.
- OVER is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games overall.
- Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Total |
Moneyline |
Patriots6-6 |
-2.5 |
-2.5 |
044 |
-135 |
Cardinals6-6 |
u44 |
+2.5 |
u44 |
+114 |
Ice, Ice, Ice Cold
This game makes me sick, but here we go.
It was an atrocious weekend for us betting, but we’re back at it with clear eyes.
The Pats offense is bad by any measure, but the Cards defense also stinks, so those may cancel out.
On the other side, the Pats defense is elite and the Cards have been downright awful.
This game gives me a little bit of pause because the Patriots have not looked good against mobile quarterbacks this season, so Murray could get loose on some scrambles, which is always annoying.
End of the day, this is just a bad coaching matchup. Kingsbury tends to struggle against superior coaches, so it’s fair to wonder if that continues against the best coach in the league.
The trends are also ludicrous for Belichick here. They cover 69% of their games after a loss dating back to 2003, and that percentage gets even higher coming off a double-digit loss where they cover 75% of the time.
The trends are too much to ignore.
Nate's Pick |
Pats -2.5 |
All I Want for Christmas is Belichick
Is it December yet? Because that's when Belichick teams start getting really good. The Pats are fighting the Bolts and Jets for a playoff spot, while the Cards are planning to play golf. Arizona has endured a dismal season, and their quarterback who refused to watch game film is becoming the NFL's snowflake: better not hurt his feelings!Â
While the 2022 Patriots are anything but dominant, they are balanced and businesslike. They beat teams they should, which is why they are 5-1 straight up as a favorite this season ATS.Â
Their solid defense has been carrying the team all season, while I look for Mac Jones to move the air in the air off the Cards porous and injury riddled secondary.
John's Pick |
Pats -2.5 |
Can We Find a Cardinals Angle?
Nate's point about the Belichick trends is a prescient one. The best time to hammer a small line below a key number like this is after the Patriots get blown out at home. An inferior coach (looking at you, Kliff) will study last week's game film and try to replicate the recipe for success against the Pats, regardless of personnel. The problem with that strategy is that Belichick works all week in practice to rectify those issues. He flips the game script and covers. It's an easy play.
If the Pats have an Achilles heel, it's the mobile quarterback. They're built to stop the big arm who can't move around in the pocket. Three of their losses have come against the Bills, Bears, and Ravens, all of whom use their QBs legs to create second chance opportunities. Can Kyler do the same thing?
I would have liked the Patriots to have been a bit more valued here, because the Cardinals can utilize Murray to control the clock and score some points. but their defense may not be able to hold the line. I'm still going to take the +2.5, just to be a bit of a contrarian. Trends be damned, the Patriots aren't very good.
P.S. think about the over as well. The Cardinals defense is not very good and the over is 6-0 in their last 6 games. That's a trend that I can believe in.
Jack's Pick |
Cardinals +2.5 |
If you like our NFL Week 14 Best Bets for Monday Night Football, read more of our coverage at Godzilla Wins.Â