The Standings
Thru Week 12 |
Wins |
Losses |
Push |
Winning % |
Jack |
56 |
40 |
1 |
58% |
Nate |
45 |
44 |
1 |
50% |
John |
76 |
85 |
7 |
45% |
The Word
We're rolling on the 1:00 games today. The Titans want to cover. The Lions are a lock! The Jets pick is looking like a stinker. And on Sundays, we bet the Broncos under.
Your trusted troupe of haggard analysts has all of the spiciest picks for your 4:00 slate of games for Week 13. Will the Seahawks roll or will John Wolford, um, complete passes? Is Jimmy Jesus the savior or does Boy Genius and TuAnon clean up the Niners mess? Will John actually win a game this week?
Stick with us and we'll attempt to answer one or two of these questions.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of 12/3
Click here to read our picks for the 1:00 games.
Nate's Best Bets
The Geno Smith Stock Exchange
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+6.5, o/u 41)
This team is my team. I love everything about the Seahawks, and I will not be backing off of them now.
Every game is huge for Seattle as they are still competing for the NFC West with San Francisco, so this should have their full attention, despite the myriad of problems for the Rams.
About those issues for the Rams: basically nobody with any significant value to the team is healthy. Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, and Aaron Donald are all out for this game. Sean McVay seems content to “quiet quit” his coaching job, as he moves closer towards a broadcasting career.
The Seahawks are still playing good football, and I don’t think the Rams can score enough to scare the Seahawks.
Seahawks blow away a team that is packing it in and waiting for the offseason.
Nate's Pick |
Seahawks -6.5 |
TuAnon
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, o/u 45.5)
I am a member of TuAnon.
I made some silly longshot futures bets on Tua at 50/1 for MVP a few weeks back and since then the line has absolutely plummeted and is hovering around 5/1-8/1 at most places. I will not quit on this bet, so I need to pull hard for Miami now.
The 49ers have a good defense, but their stats are padded, in part because they simply haven’t played many good offenses.
Miami is just a bad matchup for the Niners. They are good against the run on defense, and they are elite offensively. The Fins rank a respectable 12th in defensive rushing DVOA per Football Outsiders, so they should be able to slow down a S.F. attack that needs to establish the run to be successful.
The Dolphins will get their points as they have the best passing offense in the NFL, and are respectable when they move it on the ground, as well. This team has playmakers everywhere.
I don’t get all the love for San Francisco. Give me the Dolphins.
Nate's Pick |
Dolphins +4.5 |
Jack's Best Bets
Rams Mess
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+6.5, o/u 41)
I’m not usually a fan of laying more than six points on a road team in a divisional rivalry game, but the Rams are not fielding an NFL team right now.
As Nate stated, the Rams will be without most of the stars who catapulted them to their historic Super Bowl run last year. The team is a shell of itself and will not be competitive for most of the NFL season.
The Rams will be starting John Wolford at quarterback. He threw for 212 yards against the Cardinals earlier in the season. This isn’t a Los Angeles team that is eager to show the world they can compete without Stafford. The offensive gameplan will be vanilla. The Seahawks have been susceptible to the big play this year, but Wolford doesn’t pose as much of a threat as some other QBs they’ve faced as of late. The Seahawks defense should feast.
Seattle’s offense continues to roll. Geno Smith has been one of the most efficient passers in the league, ranking 7th in EPA. He is also 2nd in passing success rate. He ranks fourth in completed air yards per attempt (4.4). This means he’s not dumping it off to the check down every play to boost his numbers. He throws the ball down the field.
Geno should put the ball in the end zone and the absence of Matt Stafford makes me think the Rams will struggle to move the ball. The Rams offensive line has been a mess, so take a look at the total sacks and play the over if you’re into props.
Jack's Pick |
Seahawks -6.5 |
The Jimmy Jesus Air Yards Per Pass Attempt Conundrum
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, o/u 45.5)
We’re all in the TuAnon cult at GodzillaWins. I have made a mint betting the 49ers at the right times this year and fading them when the matchup looks bad. I don’t like the matchup here.
Over the last three games, the Dolphins have averaged 34.7 points. Tua ranks first in completed air yard per attempt (5.9). San Francisco ranks 10th in DVOA against the pass. That’s still a great statistic, but San Francisco is a little more vulnerable against teams that can throw.
The Niners have a ton of explosive playmakers, but I don’t trust Jimmy G. Here’s my issue. Let’s stay with completed air yars per attempt. Garoppolo ranks 29th (3.1) in this statistic. Get this. He ranks 1st in yards after catch per completion (7.0). What this means is he plays dink and dunk and lets those playmakers create yards after catch. When matching up against Tua, I don’t trust Jimmy G.
Miami’s defense isn’t great. They rank 17th in DVOA. This game should see a lot of points scored. I like the Dolphins at +4.5, but I like the points total better. You could parlay both for a little extra fun. I’ll stick with points.
Jack's Pick |
Under 45.5 points |
John's Best Bet for the Afternoon
Rams Mess
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+6.5, o/u 41)
Godzilla Best Bet |
49ers -4.5 |
Bungles, Baby!
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5, o/u 52.5)
The Bengals are on fire, their offense under Joey Burrow is clicking like a metronome on speed dial and their beast of a wide receiver Jamar Chase is back.
The Chiefs are having fun making money on commercials and beating up on dead teams with third string quarterbacks (Rams). There are only so many games KC can win in the last moment with Mahomes scrambling for 50 yards on 3rd and 17’s.
The Bengals have long been criticized as a finesse team with little trench toughness. But they matched Tennessee’s muscle up front last Sunday. At some point the Bengals have to win a key matchup at home that makes a statement.
The AFC is wide open. The Chiefs really miss Tyrek Hill running around the defense and opening thinks up. KC is not the same team outside of Arrowhead. Bengals continue their roll.
Godzilla Best Bet |
Bengals +2.5 |
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